Willie Walsh, head of the International Air Transport Association, has said air passengers will face “inevitable” fare increases over the high summer season in 2026, as the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupts fuel supplies and drives up prices.
Formerly chief of British Airways and now representing more than 360 airlines across over 120 countries and regions, Walsh told the BBC: “Over time it’s inevitable that the high price of oil will be reflected in higher ticket prices.”
Addressing the United Kingdom’s situation more specifically, he said “the major problem facing the UK is timing. You normally expect to see a 25% increase in flights and fuel requirements in the months of July and August versus, let’s say, March,” adding: “I think the concern will be that if sufficient alternative supply isn’t sourced, there may be some shortages when we get into the peak summer period.”
Walsh believes significant disruption to schedules can be avoided (and airlines will be keen to avoid problems since the EU has insisted they remain responsible for compensating passengers amid the current issues). But he warned of rising ticket prices ahead and noted that the impact of the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping passage, could continue into 2027. This goes beyond the worst-case scenarios laid out by analysts when the crisis first began.
Tui’s chief executive, Sebastien Ebel, and the European Union’s energy commissioner, Dan Jorgensen, have dismissed the prospect of serious fuel shortages in the near-term, but the latter has not ruled out longer-term effects.
Meanwhile, countries around the world have been seeking solutions to the oil shortages, ranging from authorising the import and use of US fuel for European airlines to increasing home-owned refinery production, as seen in the UK.
Following the war in Iran, flight cancellations by Middle Eastern carriers disrupted flows, causing a significant rebalancing of air traffic in four major region-pairs that were heavily dependent on Middle East for connectivity. More in the #WeeklyChart👉 https://t.co/ZgShCGcEP0 pic.twitter.com/czWQ0qoYZ5
— IATA (@IATA) May 16, 2026
Some of the solutions have been flagged by green campaigners as a step backwards for climate agendas, as some nations fall back on dirtier fuel. Indonesia, one of the world’s largest coal exporters by trade value (alongside Kazakhstan, Russia, Colombia, and Mongolia), is prioritising domestic supply chains over exports, limiting regional availability.
Responding, Bangladesh has increased both generation and imports of coal-fired power. India, almost 75% dependent on coal for power, is operating at maximum coal-fired generation and has cancelled planned stoppages. Vietnam is already considering importing coal from the United States and Laos, according to energy market tracker Argus Media.
South Korea declared earlier this spring that it would postpone the closure of its coal-fired power plants, originally timetabled for 2040, and has eased cost penalties on electricity produced from coal. The Philippines is also increasing coal-burning under national emergency measures. Similarly, Japanese officials have temporarily allowed an Industry Ministry reprieve on coal-fired power plant restrictions, allowing older, less efficient coal-fired plants to continue running for the next fiscal year.
