Predictions for the most turbulent flight routes in 2025 have been published and flyers travelling over mountainous regions are once again likely to experience the bumpiest rides.
Turbulence predictor site Turbli, run by Computational Fluid Dynamics engineer, Ignacio Gallego-Marcos, has analysed over 10,000 flight paths between 550 of the world’s largest airports using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the UK Met Office.
From that Gallego-Marcos has produced a ranking of the worst routes for what he calls the invisible “swirls and vortices” caused by differences in air velocity as it moves in the Earth’s atmosphere. They are due to phenomena like the jet stream, mountain barriers that force air upwards fast, and the collision of air at different temperatures in certain cloud formations.
Mendoza to Santiago, South America
In the number one spot for the world’s most turbulent is a South American flight route, from Mendoza, Argentina, to Santiago, Chile. Overflying the Andes, it comes in with an average “Eddy Dissipation Rate” or EDR of 24.6, which translates to frequent moderate turbulence for those onboard.
It’s easy to understand how the air temperature alters and therefore the air moves and pushes up against the mountains as aircraft on the route go from the arid Andean foothill wine region of Mendoza to the Chilean capital which is encircled by snow-topped Andean peaks and the north-south mountains of the Coastal Range.
South America’s Andes dominate, followed by the Himalaya
In fact, South American flight paths to and from Mendoza and Santiago feature prominently on the turbulence blacklist, also taking the second, third, fourth and seventh spots.
And it is another mountain region, the Himalaya over in Asia, that makes up the rest of the top ten, with flights between Nepal’s Kathmandu, China’s Chengdu and Xining, Tibetan Lhasa and Bhutan’s Paro.
Top tips for fearful flyers
If you are a fearful flyer, it’s worth remembering that even though the world’s changing climate is predicted potentially to increase turbulence, the air moving a plane around is a lot like waves moving a ship at sea. If you remain securely attached in your seat, injury is unlikely and turbulence very rarely causes severe accidents. In the 12 years from 2009 to 2021, out of an estimated 48 billion flyers, only 30 passengers and 116 crew members were seriously injured due to turbulence, US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) data shows.
If that doesn’t allay your fears, avoiding the following routes is probably best.
Top 10 most turbulent routes around the world
- Mendoza (MDZ) – Santiago (SCL)
- Cordoba (COR) – Santiago
- Mendoza – Salta (SLA)
- Mendoza – San Carlos de Bariloche (BRC)
- Kathmandu (KTM) – Lhasa (LXA)
- Chengdu (CTU) – Lhasa
- Santa Cruz (VVI) – Santiago
- Kathmandu – Paro (PBH)
- Chengdu (CTU) – Xining (XNN)
- San Carlos de Bariloche (BRC) – Santiago
