For the majority of the world’s air passengers, a patch of turbulence is likely to be the most uncomfortable problem they will have experienced mid-air, and fortunately, serious incidents have been rare in the history of aviation so far. But following the tragic death of a man aboard a Singapore Airlines flight, and multiple injuries to other passengers, many flyers are asking: just what is air turbulence and with the world’s weather getting more extreme, how bad can it get?
Changes in the air
One good way to picture air turbulence is to first imagine a boat at sea. Waves in the water cause the boat to move around and bob up and down. Planes undergo almost exactly the same thing but the waves and movement occur in the air due to changes in landscape, atmospheric pressure, temperature. Storms, overflying mountainous landscapes and jet streams can be the cause. Because these forces are in the air around us, they are invisible.
While it can be quite frightening not being able to see what is pummelling your aircraft, most turbulence incidents are harmless and injuries are rare. In the 12 years from 2009 to 2021, out of an estimated 48 billion flyers, 30 passengers and 116 crew members were seriously injured due to turbulence, US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) data shows.
Different levels of severity
In fact, turbulence is categorised into four levels of severity: light, moderate, severe, and extreme. Light and moderate turbulence may be felt as slight bumpiness on board. You might feel your stomach lurch as the plane drops momentarily. People may be thrust gently from side to side and unsecured objects may move.
Frequently these spells may only last a few seconds or minutes and often pilots are warned about potential spots of turbulence by meteorological agencies and are able to switch on seatbelt signs so that passengers and crew can strap themselves in.
Undetectable “clear air turbulence”
But a phenomenon called “clear air turbulence”, caused, according to the FAA website, by “atmospheric pressure, jet streams, air around mountains, cold or warm weather fronts or thunderstorms,” is less predictable and does not show up on flight deck weather radar.
When more severe turbulence happens without warning, aircraft can be violently battered or lose altitude so rapidly that people and objects are thrown around the cabin, injuring themselves and others. This is why all aviation safety advice includes the recommendation to keep your seatbelt on, even when the plane is cruising, so that you are more likely to be able to remain safely attached to your seat if turbulence hits, rather than be sent crashing around the cabin.
Impact of global warming
Obviously, sometimes it is necessary to use the bathroom on a flight or to walk around to avoid the risk of blood clots. But in general, obeying seatbelt safety advice when flying is only going to become more and more important. As global warming increases the amount of moisture the air can hold, and therefore the likelihood of extreme storms and weather events, air turbulence, and the problems associated with it are becoming more and more severe.
Indeed, studies by the UK’s University of Reading suggest severe turbulence has increased 55% since 1979 and one meteorology researcher there, Mark Prosser, points out it is not just passengers who must take care. Reported by CNN Travel, he said severe turbulence causes increased wear and tear on craft and noted, “Airlines will need to start thinking about how they will manage the increased turbulence, as it costs the industry $150–500m annually in the USA alone.”
