Flyers are likely to experience more air turbulence in future decades due to the effects of climate change, according to research from the United Kingdom’s University of Reading. What’s more, the type of turbulence set to increase is unpredictable and therefore difficult for pilots to fly around, meaning passengers can expect to be strapped into their seats for longer during flights.
A previous study from the same university used 26 cutting-edge climate models to show that turbulence has increased over the last four decades as a result of warmer temperatures that affect jet streams at aircraft cruising altitudes.
On one of the world’s busiest flight routes over the North Atlantic, severe turbulence increased by 55%, reaching nearly 30 hours per year in 2020. Moderate turbulence increased by 37% to over 96 hours, and light turbulence also went up, by 17% from a massive 547 hours.
Passenger videos a strong turbulence event on board a Aerolíneas Argentinas 737 MAX 8 while flying over the Andes Mountains. Despite the incident no injuries reported to passengers or crew. pic.twitter.com/d39pVMltQB
— Breaking Aviation News & Videos (@aviationbrk) July 5, 2024
Now, the latest paper published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences has found the issue will continue to affect flights worldwide, in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Whether humans continue to emit carbon moderately or to a high extent, wind shear (rapid changes in wind direction over a short distance, either vertically or horizontally) will increase by 16 to 27% and the atmosphere will become 10 to 20% less stable, over the 85 years between 2015 to 2100.
Joana Medeiros, PhD researcher at the University of Reading and lead author, said: “Increased wind shear and reduced stability work together to create favourable conditions for clear-air turbulence — the invisible, sudden jolts that can shake aircraft without warning. Unlike turbulence caused by storms, clear-air turbulence cannot be seen on radar, making it difficult for pilots to avoid.”
Turbulence costs airlines $150-500 million annually in the USA, according to The Research Applications Laboratory, with carriers legally responsible for passenger injuries and disruption, under the Montreal Convention. Airlines as well as air passengers will probably need to adapt their practices to the new conditions, the researchers predict.
Noting the number of “severe turbulence incidents” seen in recent years, “causing serious injuries and in some tragic cases, fatalities,” Professor Paul Williams, co-author at the University of Reading, said: “Pilots may need to keep seatbelt signs on longer and suspend cabin service more often during flights, but airlines will also need new technology to spot turbulence before it hits, protecting passengers as skies become more chaotic.”
Video shows moment extreme turbulence hit a SAS A330 over Greenland, throwing passengers into the ceiling on a Miami-bound flight which was then forced to turn around and head back to Europe.
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A passenger who was on board SAS Flight SK957 said they witnessed at least one person… pic.twitter.com/exuDnDX9eQ
A recent transatlantic Delta flight from Salt Lake City to Amsterdam, suffered sudden extreme changes in altitude about 40 minutes after take-off, Flightradar24 data shows, resulting in the hospitalisation of nearly 10% of passengers on board.
And in May 2024, severe turbulence hit Singapore Airlines flight SQ321, killing one passenger and harming others, leading the carrier to refund everyone on board and offer US$10,000 in compensation to those with minor injuries, as well as larger payouts for more seriously injured passengers.
