Russia is by far the largest energy supplier to the EU. It exported about 45% of the gas consumed across the bloc in 2021, according to the European Commission. In addition, almost a third of the oil consumed in the 27 nations is Russian and 46% of the coal came from the same country. 90% of the gas and oil consumed in the bloc is imported.
The EU faces a climate dilemma because on the one hand it wants to rely less and less on fossil fuel imports from Russia, especially now in the midst of the war in Ukraine. But this is not an achievement that can be fulfilled in the short term and even less so if the 27 nations want to comply with the European Green Pact, known as the ‘Green Deal’.
The EU has not imposed sanctions on Russia prohibiting the import of gas and oil. The big question of the moment is how to reduce European dependence on fossil fuels exploited by Russian companies.
According to Euractiv, the EU Commission published in March a blueprint to cut EU dependency on Russian gas by two thirds in 2022. The ultimate plan is to end Russian fossil fuel imports well before 2030. Originally, the Commission’s plan was that by the end of 2022, the EU could replace the equivalent of 102 billion cubic meters (bcm) of the total 155 bcm of Russian gas it receives every year.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently published a paper with ten ideas on how to reduce the EU’s dependency on Russian gas. It did not include the option of increasing coal production because this would increase the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions. Although the IEA acknowledged that it would be one of the options that could “displace large volumes of gas relatively quickly.” In other words, a more expeditious way to replace Russian gas.
However, coal exploitation is not a very viable path for the bloc. Increasing fossil fuel production would take them away from the European Green Pact. The aim of this is for the 27 nations to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. If achieved, this would make Europe the first climate-neutral continent.
The situation is even more difficult, as the EU aims to increase the gas it has in storage to cope with the coming winter, when energy consumption soars because of heaters. Currently, this storage is less than 30% and the European Commission is considering a legislative proposal to achieve 90% filling by October 1 of each year.
One of the solutions put forward by the European Commission to become less dependent on Russia and, in turn, to try more climate-friendly options, was the ‘REPowerEU’ strategy. The plan aims to end dependence on Russian fuels by 2030 and even sets the goal of reducing imports by two-thirds in a single year.
The project has two pillars. The first is to diversify gas sources, both by importing more from other countries such as the United States or Norway, and by increasing energy production from biomethane and renewable hydrogen. The second pillar is to consume less fossil fuels and to focus more on energy efficiency and renewable energies.
However, biomethane and renewable hydrogen still account for a relatively insignificant share of the EU’s energy production. He also warned that these are schemes that take years to advance.
