In 350 BCE Aristotle pointed out that “what is common to the greatest number has the least care bestowed upon it. Everyone thinks chiefly of his own, hardly at all of the common interest” I doubt that he was the first human to notice this characteristic of our species.
And Aristotle wasn’t the last. Technically, it is a ‘common pool resource’ problem – Google Scholar returns 2,180,000 hits. Our Earth’s atmosphere is a common pool resource. We dump greenhouse gases into it, causing global warming, and we have no means of preventing others from doing so. If we reduce our emissions, we fear that others – individuals, businesses, and countries – will not. We cannot exclude others from continuing to cause global warming. We fear that we will bear the cost whilst others free ride on our sacrifice. This is not an irrational fear. There is another extensive literature about the prisoner’s dilemma – 173,000 hits. The dilemma arises when parties must each choose whether or not to cooperate with the others in reducing emissions. We all benefit when we collectively reduce our emissions. We still benefit if others bear the costs and we continue with business as usual – that way, we get the benefit of their pain, and those making the reduction in emissions do not get the full benefit of their sacrifice. It is evident from the negotiations at the climate change COPs that business as usual is preferred.
In a paper in Science in 1968 Garrett Hardin described this core human problem as the “tragedy of the commons” Hardin eloquently explains the problem, “Ruin is the destination toward which all men rush, each pursuing his own best interest in a society that believes in the freedom of the commons. Freedom in a commons brings ruin to all.” Of course, nation-states and communities can regulate their commons – but our global atmosphere and oceans to date lack effective regulation. All too often we fail to regulate adequately at national or local level.
Hardin was extensively criticised for his neo-Malthusianism. Elinor Ostrom has demonstrated that cooperative structures can manage common land or fish stocks—quite so where cooperation can be fostered. We are not doing well on greenhouse gas emissions at the global scale required; we have not yet even dented the curve.
In the UK, YouGov polling in July 2023 reported that 71% of voters support the Net Zero by 2050 target. However, a mere 27% of voters support policies to reduce emissions, “even if they result in some additional costs for ordinary people.” When we confront the costs, nearly half of us reject the policy. As I write this we have just heard the UK Chancellor’s budget speech in which he has again argued that we cannot leave debt for our children to pay off. I cannot understand why it is acceptable it bequeath them our emissions. UNICEF and Save the Children have both labelled climate change as a children’s rights issue.
We need to do better. There are reasons for optimism.
The costs of greener electricity are declining
Average unsubsidized levelized cost of energy. With increasingly widespread implementation of sustainable energy sources, costs for sustainable have declined, most notably for energy generated by solar panels. Data source is Lazard
At WTM London, a significant part of the audience left the room when the hydrogen-powered aviation panel started. This was sad because it was easily the most optimistic session, and it was disappointing because it revealed the unwillingness of so many in our sector to engage with the aviation issue and the hydrogen solution.
The panel discussion at WTM London in November 2023 is available as a podcast Decarbonising Aviation – Is Hydrogen Part of the Solution? The illustrations and speaker details are available here There is every reason to expect Airbus to have a hydrogen-powered plane flying in the middle of the next decade.
Listen to John Coplin, FRAE, the RB211 aero-engine Chief Designer, then Director of Technology and Design at Rolls Royce speak passionately about why tourism matters and argues that the engineers need to be funded to make the transition to hydrogen.
Unless you have set up alerts for hydrogen stories as they break, you will be unaware of the changes that are coming thick and fast.
We need to look beyond the travel and tourism silo.
