Hurricanes and deadly heat are impacting tourism – it will get worse.
As I write this, reports of the devastation wrought by Hurricane Beryl are in the news. Hurricane Beryl has destroyed lives, houses and infrastructure in the Caribbean. Many will probably dismiss this as bad weather, it happens, it passes. This response is to fundamentally misunderstand the causes of the increasing frequency and severity of hurricanes. Hurricanes of an intensity for which communities and their infrastructure are not prepared, destruction inevitably follows.
As Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading, explains: “In simple terms, climate change is increasing the temperature difference between the warm and cold air masses that collide to form the jet stream in the upper atmosphere. This effect is making the jet stream less stable and allowing more turbulence to break out.”
Climate change is evident now—extreme weather is not part of normal variability. As The Economist pointed out last week, “Deadly heat is increasingly the norm, not an exception to it.” The article was headed “The rise of the truly cruel summer.” This year, more than 1,300 pilgrims died during the hajj in Saudi Arabia as temperatures exceeded 50°C, and in Delhi, residents and visitors alike suffered 40 days above 40°C. Well, they are not quite alike; tourists were and are more likely to have air-conditioning. The official Saudi news agency SPA reported that more than three-quarters of those who died in Mecca did not have official permits to be there and walked under direct sunlight without adequate shelter.
The unnatural heat does not only affect humans. In Mexico, scores of howler monkeys have died of heat stroke. Our planet is now about 1.2°C hotter than it was before the Industrial Revolution, fuelled by burning fossil fuels, began to raise average and peak global temperatures. A study published in the Lancet estimated 356,000 heat-related deaths in 2019 and a 74% increase globally between 1980 and 2016.
The UN has long recognised that climate change has become a global threat. We have procrastinated for too long. It is no longer enough to reduce emissions. Now, we have to adapt and reduce emissions.
In June António Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations, described the fossil-fuel companies as the “godfathers of climate chaos” and warned that we face “climate crunch time”. Guterres went on to say that “like the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs, we’re having an outsized impact. In the case of climate, we are not the dinosaurs – we are the meteor. We are not only in danger – we are the danger.”
But is anyone listening?
Back in December, TIME, along with many others, pointed out that 2024 would be the ultimate election year, with 64 countries going to the polls, calculating that 49% of the world’s population could vote. In a world of nation-states, voting takes place country by country, and parties contest seats around a national agenda. Taxation, growth, public services, migration — the issues are similar and recur in one election cycle after another. Similar issues arise in jurisdictions around the world.
In June, Ipsos’ issues index, based on a representative sample of 1,000 telephone interviews, revealed that just 2% of UK adults ranked “pollution/ environment/ climate change” as the “most important issue facing Britain today”. Only 9% ranked it first or second, with proximate issues like health, economy, migration, inflation, housing, and education taking precedence. However, it’s crucial to remember that we, as nations and individuals, hold the power to make a difference.
As Aylett and Harwatt have pointed out, “climate change and nature loss are inextricably linked with the most pressing issues that UK voters identify – and will only become more so over the coming years.” They point, as examples, to food price inflation caused by extreme weather events and reliance on fossil fuels.
Opinion surveys reveal that there is mounting concern about climate change, but it is not being felt in ballot boxes:
- 54% of Americans view climate change as a major threat, but the partisan divide is large Democrats 78%, Republicans 23% (Pew Research Centre, 2023)
- In the UK around three in four adults (74%) reported feeling (very or somewhat) worried about climate change; the latest estimate is similar compared with the percentage who said they felt worried (75%) around a year ago. (Office for National Statistics, 2022)
- Not surprisingly, concerns about the looming “environment disaster” are greater where the experience has been worse. (Ipsos Global Trends Report, 2023)
Change is difficult and expensive. There is a common human tendency to shift the responsibility of reducing carbon emissions onto others, hoping that they will bear the cost.
As I have written before, “This is a classic Tragedy of the Commons, Garrett Hardin’s naming of the age-old problem identified in an essay written in 1833 by the British economist William Forster Lloyd, who used a hypothetical example of the effects of unregulated grazing on common land. The benefits to individuals, businesses and nations of continuing to burn fossil fuels outweigh the consequences of global warming. … Ruin is the destination toward which all men rush, each pursuing his own best interest in a society that believes in the freedom of the commons.”
There is an understandable predisposition to hope that there is a cheap technical fix, and the fact that climate change is mainly evidenced through our experience of the weather, which we know through experience is variable, causes humans to procrastinate. For some, there is undoubtedly a resigned fatalism.
What, then, are the implications for tourism?
Procrastination has resulted in the travel and tourism sector needing to both mitigate and adapt. The longer we leave taking effective action, the more expensive it will be. New technologies will make a difference to aviation and terrestrial transport. Solar, wind, heat pumps and hydropower are already available, but many businesses are not using green energy. Mitigation is happening but too slowly. For a sector significantly dependent on habitable and walkable urban spaces and green, uncharred, rural and natural areas, we have not addressed the challenge of mitigation with adequate urgency and vigour.
Flooding, drought, wildfire and melting snow and ice all affect destinations, making them less attractive to visit. Extreme wildfires have doubled in intensity, over the last two decades. Last year, there were wildfires in Europe in Sicily, Croatia, and Greece. In Greece in the month of July, an average of 50 wildfires broke out daily in the country, with a record of 64 new fires on 23 July. Wildfires are burning again in Greece, with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis warning of a “particularly dangerous” period ahead. Fire and flood-damaged landscapes often take years to recover, and infrastructure has to be rebuilt.
Even getting to the destinations has become more dangerous, with severe air turbulence causing injuries and a fatality. An Air Europa plane en route from Madrid to Montevideo on July 1st; a Singapore Airlines plane over the Bay of Bengalon 21st May, and a Qatar Airways flight over Turkey on 26th May. Be sure to keep your seat belt on.
Huang is researching the impacts of hurricanes on tourism in Florida, looking at theoretical and practical implications for tourism resilience management, and writes “… unlike, say, earthquakes, hurricanes are seasonal, and their size and impact are likely to increase; they are, therefore, to a degree, predictable. This is important for a sector that relies heavily on people planning according to popular perceptions of attractiveness and risk. Tourism businesses in areas prone to hurricanes should, therefore, not only prepare for how to deal with their likely outcomes but also the challenges of assuaging public fears.”
There are more academic articles and papers being published on the impact of climate change on tourism. But the industry needs to engage too – the viability of the sector in many destinations requires rapid adaptation.
One of the first reviews of the implications of climate change for tourism was published by the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership in 2014. The issues are now emerging in the mainstream media. In the UK The Guardian has published work by photojournalist Milan Schellingerhouton in the Alps: “Global heating … and the resulting lack of reliable snowfall is becoming a leading concern for the industry, as ski areas risk becoming unsustainable as winter tourism declines. Ski areas below 1,500 metres will be virtually without snow in the near future.”
On July 2nd The Guardian ran a story: “‘My escape is going north’: heatwaves begin to drive tourists in Europe to cool climes.” In addition to some interesting anecdotal evidence, The Guardian was able to quote some figures from a new survey by the European Travel Commission:
- Three in four (76%) European travellers are adapting their behaviour to the climate crisis
- A third (33.7%) of Europeans said they avoided destinations where extreme weather events were likely
- 17.3% said they did this by avoiding places with severe temperatures
- 16% sought out holiday destinations with more stable weather conditions
- 8.5% said they were changing the months they travel
- one in 10 travellers said they worried about extreme weather.
We have failed to halt climate change so far; we must learn to live with it.
