May 2024 marks the 12th consecutive month of global record-high temperatures, according to European Union (EU) climate observers. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), a body that observes the Earth as part of the EU space programme, has released data showing May 2024 was the warmest May since records began with a global average surface air temperature 0.65°C above the 1991–2020 average.
Worse, compared to pre-industrial (1850–1900) averages, the global average temperature for the month was 1.52°C higher, meaning there has been an 11-month run of averages at or above +1.5°C. And looking at the last 12 months (June 2023 – May 2024), the global average is also at an all-time high, 0.75°C above the 1991–2020 average and 1.63°C above the pre-industrial figure.
Addressing the year-long temperature record, Carlo Buontempo, C3S Director, said the “12-month streak” is an “overall signature of climate change.” He went on to paint a disturbing picture for the coming decades, while sowing seeds of hope: “We are living in unprecedented times, but we also have unprecedented skill in monitoring the climate and this can help inform our actions. This string of hottest months will be remembered as comparatively cold but if we manage to stabilise the concentrations of GHGs [greenhouse gases] in the atmosphere in the very near future we might be able to return to these “cold” temperatures by the end of the century.”
C3S is not alone in its findings. While some say the extremes are the result of El Niño conditions and will be mitigated by the onset of La Niña, the World Meteorological Organization disagrees. Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett has said, “The end of El Niño does not mean a pause in long-term climate change as our planet will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Exceptionally high sea surface temperatures will continue to play an important role during the next months.”
Looking further forward, the WMO and the UK´s Meteorological Office annual reports predict the next five years will contain at least one 2023-beating year. 2023’s record highs coincided with widespread wildfires and extreme weather events that United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, is interpreting in his latest climate statement as “Our planet is trying to tell us something. But we don’t seem to be listening. We’re shattering global temperature records and reaping the whirlwind. It’s climate crunch time. Now is the time to mobilise, act and deliver.”
Denouncing humanity’s “outsized impact on our planet” which is “like the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs,” Guterres’ words came in a speech to mark World Climate Day. Echoing Buontempo’s mixed message of warning and hope, he went on: “In the case of climate, we are not the dinosaurs. We are the meteor,” he said. “And we are not only in danger, we are the danger. But we are also the solution.”
