Europe’s ski resorts are in danger of disappearing due to the risk of snow scarcity in a two degree warming scenario.
The forecast is based on a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, which used data and models to assess snow cover at 2,234 resorts from Iceland to Turkey under 2°C and 4°C of warming.
Currently, 53% of European resorts are likely to suffer from poor snow cover in a scenario where temperatures rise by 2°C, the study suggests, highlighting that current policies mean the world is on track for 2.7°C of global heating.
In the extreme case of 4°C, almost three-quarters of resorts would have scarce snow every other year even with snowmaking. Snowmaking will only partially offset the decline, reads the study, but the involved machinery like snow blowers ends up generating more of the same greenhouse gases that are heating up the globe in the first place.
Snowmaking … epitomises some of the key challenges at the nexus between climate change adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development in the mountains.
study abstract
While the researchers found that artificial snowmaking contributed just 2% of overall emissions, a greater emphasis was associated to tourist flights heading to resorts and accommodation as the main causes of emissions.
“Ski tourism is a niche issue in the face of climate change, but from the point of view of the people who live in the mountains and make a living from the industry, it is very important to really understand to what extent climate change is threatening the activity, and to take into account the impact this activity has on the climate,” said Dr Samuel Morin, research scientist at Météo-France and CNRS in Toulouse and Grenoble.
Morin added, however, that the energy needed to create artificial snow could be offset if skiers did not fly to other continents in search of snow.
With glaciers melting at a fast pace and snow shortages becoming a visible symbol of the effects of climate change, everything from tourism to pro ski competitions have already felt the effects.
Earlier this year, ski resorts across Europe have been forced to shut down as the continent experienced some of the highest January temperatures on record, leaving mountainsides bare and slopes covered in slush.
“The study delivers detailed input for policymakers, investors and the tourism sector, encouraging them to reconsider whether it is wise to maintain high dependency on winter tourism in certain areas,” said Prof Paul Peeters at Breda University in the Netherlands.
