Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is, at least in the short and medium term, the solution for decarbonising air travel. But while the aviation industry is ready to increase SAF usage, production remains far behind what is needed, not only slowing down uptake, but also meaning prices remain far higher than kerosene.
In a promising projection from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), SAF production seems on track to triple in 2024, reaching 1.9 billion litters (1.5 million tonnes). Although tripling production sounds like a big step in the right direction, it would still only account for 0.53% of aviation’s fuel need in 2024, according to IATA, far less than the 2% mandated in the EU by 2025.
Worldwide, through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), governments set an ambition to achieve a 5% CO2 emissions reduction for international aviation from SAF by 2030. To achieve that ambition, around 27% of all expected renewable fuel production capacity available in 2030 would need to be SAF, but it currently only accounts for just 3% of all renewable fuel production.
The interest in SAF is growing and there is plenty of potential. But the concrete plans that we have seen so far are far from sufficient.
Willie Walsh, IATA Director General
“SAF will provide about 65% of the mitigation needed for airlines to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. (…) Governments have set clear expectations for aviation to achieve a 5% CO2 emissions reduction through SAF by 2030 and to be net zero carbon emissions by 2050. They now need to implement policies to ensure that airlines can actually purchase SAF in the required quantities”, said IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, remaining cautiously optimistic about “the direction of exponential increases starting to come into focus”.
To foster the increase of SAF production, IATA proposes several policy measures, the first of which being the diversification of feedstocks. About 80% of SAF expected to be produced over the next 5 years is likely to come from hydrogenated fatty acids (HEFA) – used cooking oils, animal fats, etc. The association argues that accelerating the use of other certified pathways and feedstocks, including agricultural and forestry residues and municipal waste, will greatly expand the potential for SAF production.
With government mandates, instead of building new factories specifically for SAF, existing refineries could be used to co-process up to 5% of approved renewable feedstocks alongside the crude oil streams. “As road transport transitions to electrification, policies should be established to shift production toward the long-term need of air transport for SAF. Incentives aimed at SAF can help facilitate the renewable diesel-SAF switch, which requires minimal modifications at existing stand-alone renewable fuel facilities”, IATA said in a statement.
Lastly, more incentives are needed to boost investment in renewable fuel production. Stable, long-term tax credits can contribute to the maximisation of SAF production capabilities in both existing and new facilities.
