The people of Tuvalu, a southern Pacific, British Commonwealth island nation that is one of the most low-lying and remote in the world, appear to be choosing mass migration in the face of the threat to their existence from climate change.
Australia, also a Commonwealth nation, is offering 280 visas to Tuvaluans yearly, under the terms of a climate migration scheme that the government has described as “the first of its kind anywhere in the world.” The Falepili Union, signed in 2024, made the visas available and has been seen as a way for Australia to combat China’s increasing influence in a region Anthony Albanese described as a potentially “peaceful, stable, prosperous and unified” one. Tuvalu maintains ties with Taipei, Taiwan, rather than Beijing.
The historic Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union has entered into force – a partnership that will protect Tuvalu’s people, identity and culture.
— Senator Penny Wong (@SenatorWong) November 21, 2024
I welcomed Tuvalu Foreign Minister Paulson Panapa to Canberra to discuss our elevated bilateral relationship and our climate action. pic.twitter.com/nZiqo00bNe
Demand outstripping supply for visas, territory, and water
But whether the pact is an Australian powerplay or not, demand for its visas is far outstripping the 280 quota, with over 3,000 Tuvaluans applying to enter a ballot for the first round eligibility. That’s almost a third of the disappearing archipelago’s population who see a better future elsewhere.
About halfway between Australia and Hawaii, and sitting at under five metres in altitude as its highest point, Tuvalu is home to 10,643 people, according to a census dating back to 2022. Habitable and fertile territory is already scarce, with land described by Christopher Cocker chief executive of the Pacific Tourism Organisation as “prone to inundation from rising seas, especially during king tides” and where “access to clean and safe drinking water is a challenge, with prolonged droughts and unpredictable rainfall patterns.”
The creation of the treaty with Australia three years ago drew attention to the human toll of these problems for residents. “Australia recognises the devastating impact climate change is having on the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of climate vulnerable countries and people, particularly in the Pacific region,” Australia’s foreign affairs department said at the time.
Pacific island nation of Tuvalu threatened by rising seas
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) June 26, 2025
AFP map locating the Pacific island state of Tuvalu, showing its nine coral atoll islands pic.twitter.com/GWYgbO2z59
Uninhabitable within decades
Scientists have predicted that Tuvalu will become unliveable within the next 80 years and two of nine coral reef atolls are reportedly now almost submerged, an absence in the island scape that is a reminder of how fragile existence here is.
Despite that, and the high numbers of citizens who will be disappointed by the results of the first visa batch, the Australian government sought to emphasise a brighter outlook ahead on what remains nonetheless a gloomy horizon. A spokesperson for the foreign affairs department pointed out that the agreement provides “a pathway for mobility with dignity as climate impacts worsen.”
Important conversation with Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister of Tuvalu 🇹🇻, Panapasi Nelesoni.
— Wopke Hoekstra (@WBHoekstra) June 30, 2025
We discussed COP30 and climate finance. On top of public financing, unleashing private financing is key. Financing also needs to go to the most vulnerable. pic.twitter.com/IrezScNHpG
The programme’s official figures reveal 3,125 Tuvaluans entered the randomised selection within just the first four days of launch. That’s despite the cost of registration which, at A$25 (around €14), is not an insignificant sum for citizens of a country whose average weekly wage is only ten times that. The ballot closes on 18 July, meaning that more are expected to enter, reducing the odds of success for entrants. But those odds are still better, many seem to believe, than the odds of thriving on Tuvalu.
