There is “cautious optimism” in the air for the global travel and tourism sector, according to both the World Bank Group’s latest Tourism Watch Quarterly Report and the European Travel Commission’s (ETC) recent Trends and Prospects report.
The World Bank notes that approximately 304 million international tourists travelled between January and March 2025, based on estimated aviation passenger arrivals (a proxy for trends in tourism arrivals). That’s an increase of 9% year-on-year. Growth in arrivals across the whole year is predicted to level out between 3% and 5%.
Winners and losers
Growth was seen in a massive 80% of reporting territories, but Bhutan (+42%), Greenland (+26%), and Japan (+21%) are described by the World Bank as having “noteworthy increases”, which it says is driven by improved accessibility and connectivity, and promotional campaigns. In terms of regions, East Asia and the Pacific saw the biggest jump (+14%).
On the other hand, Haiti (-61%), New Caledonia (-37%), Venezuela (-33%), and Mozambique (-20%) saw the steepest declines. Though no explanation for the drops is given in the report, security concerns around civil unrest, high levels of violence and crime, and terrorism have led to Do Not Travel advisories for these territories from the United States and other national authorities.
When it comes to Europe and Q2, the ETC finds “a steady but more moderate performance,” with arrivals up 3.3% and nights down 0.7% year-on-year, which the ETC puts down to school holiday schedules and a late Easter, not a drop in demand. European destinations experienced renewed interest from China, alongside continued strong long-haul arrivals from the US, the Commission notes.
Overall, despite economic, geopolitical, and social factors affecting the industry, it has shown resilience in the early quarters of the year, according to the ETC, partly thanks to the fact that off-season demand for sun and beach holidays is rising, probably due to cost and climate factors. Spain (+7%) and Portugal (+3%) all benefited from this trend, as did Malta (+19%), Cyprus (+16%), and Central Eastern European destinations, including Latvia (+16%), Lithuania (+15%), and Hungary (+14%), which have also improved connectivity.
Spending and receipts
Turning to global receipts from tourism, they reached US$1.7 trillion in 2024, according to UN Tourism figures. Together with transport receipts, that’s around 6% of the world’s total exports of goods and services, the World Bank notes. Growth in travel services outstripped the broader services category.
Reflecting the increases in arrivals already mentioned, Q1 2025 saw an uptick in spending worldwide but particularly in Europe, Asia and the Pacific. Japan, which since the end of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions has seen surging visitors and even concerns about overtourism. It recorded an increase of 34% in tourism receipts, which the World Bank puts down to the depreciation of the yen. Nepal and South Korea also recorded strong growth, with receipts rising by 18% and 14%, respectively (UN Tourism).
Vital engine for jobs
Overall, the sector accounted for 10% of worldwide GDP in 2024, supporting 356.6 million jobs (that’s one in 10). In fact, the report describes tourism as a “vital engine” for worldwide jobs in services and points out that for every job created in tourism, 1.5 jobs are created in connected sectors such as agriculture, the creative economy and retail.
Low barriers to entry are beneficial for women, the youth segment and indigenous communities with few alternatives, the report’s authors say, nonetheless recognising that not all those jobs are high quality.
However, global trends such as sustainability concerns, the rise of automation and technology, remote working, and “niche” traveller preferences are driving change in the travel and tourism job market, creating jobs from naturalists and guides to platform managers and monitors. The Bank has supported projects to provide vocational training leading to hard skills in languages, digital competency, cultural heritage, and hospitality in Benin, Cabo Verde, and São Tomé, opening new pathways for career growth and enhancing workforce quality.
