As the United States, Canada, and Mexico prepare to kick off the expanded FIFA World Cup next month, new reports suggest the “economic goal” may be harder to hit than organisers promised.
American cities hosting matches can expect some welcome growth in the leisure and hospitality sector, but it will be short-lived, warns Oxford Economics.
The global economic forecasting and consultancy firm reports that all 11 US host cities will experience above-average GDP growth in these sectors. However, the overall effect is expected to be modest for two main reasons: little new infrastructure has been built for the event and much of the World Cup tourism is likely to “displace existing tourism” rather than generate new demand.
The situation varies sharply from city to city. Smaller metropolitan areas stand to benefit most in terms of job creation, with Kansas City, San Jose, Atlanta, Houston, and Los Angeles forecast to see the strongest gains. Established tourism hubs such as New York, Miami, and Seattle are expected to see only minimal employment growth as they already attract large numbers of international visitors throughout the year.
GDP gains differ slightly, with Houston, New York, San Jose, Seattle and Dallas set to see the biggest increase.
In March 2025, the World Economic Forum (WEF) cited a study which projected up to $40.9 billion in global GDP and the creation of 824,000 full-time jobs worldwide, with an estimated impact of $594 million from eight matches in Los Angeles County alone.
However, these figures seemed high from the outset and were produced in a very different geopolitical and economic climate.
The warning signs are already visible. International visitor spending fell by 2% in 2025, with spending by Canadians contracting by 20%. Seattle is particularly vulnerable in this respect, as almost two thirds of its inbound demand comes from Canadian visitors, whose numbers have dropped by 33%, with little recovery expected.
History also suggests that modest expectations are warranted. Of the nine cities that hosted matches in the 1994 tournament hosted by the US, only Boston, San Jose, Washington and New York experienced meaningful growth in leisure and hospitality jobs that year. Most cities recorded similar or higher growth in 1995, suggesting that the gains were due as much to the strong economy as to the tournament itself.
Crucially, just as this summer, no new stadiums or infrastructure were built in 1994, unlike in subsequent tournaments in Germany, South Africa, Brazil, Russia and Qatar, where heavy investment in stadiums and transport also created more jobs.
However, as Oxford Economics notes, jobs created for such major events are mostly temporary and barely register in annual figures.
Demand is rising unevenly across the three host nations, with Mexico currently experiencing the sharpest increase in interest and Canada recording steadier growth. Cities such as Boston, Mexico City, and Vancouver are attracting the strongest increases in travel searches and bookings.
However, air connectivity, domestic tourism flows, hotel capacity, and local mobility will determine the true economic “winners” from the tournament.
Nevertheless, both Oxford Economics and the WEF contend that not all gains are reflected in GDP or employment figures. Supporters are expected to drive temporary spending in hotels, restaurants and retail as teams progress deeper into the tournament. Major sporting events can also generate broader social benefits under the right local conditions.
