A new Europe-wide analysis claims to have debunked the widely held belief that economic growth is driven by increased air connectivity, such as airport expansion. The study, by the New Economics Foundation and commissioned by environmental advocates T&E (Transport and Environment), explored the link between air transport growth and economic growth, and concluded that claims that one is driven by the other are “deeply flawed,” a press release says.
The research, looking at 274 European regions, shows that the supposed link between air traffic growth and economic growth is weaker than commonly claimed. In 53% (143) of the regions analysed, much of Northern and Western Europe, the higher income of citizens drives increased air traffic, not the other way around, the authors say. The analysis finds that “air traffic growth is most often a consequence of prosperity, not the cause of it.”
The research examines the evidence that air transport growth is driving economic growth across different regions using a statistical clustering technique. In regions of what it calls “cluster 3 and 4”, or large parts of northern, eastern and central Europe and the UK, the probability that air transport growth was driving economic growth was low or even negative, the Foundation says. Meanwhile, in regions of clusters 1 and 2, most of southern Europe and eastern areas, the probability that air connectivity was helping growth was only “moderate.”
If true, the findings go against recent claims such as those by easyJet that its development of low-cost aviation has “facilitated £21 billion (around €24 billion) gross value added (GVA) and 243,600 jobs for the UK economy, equivalent to £300 (over €340) in GVA for every UK resident.” The research also raises questions about some countries’ ongoing investments in air transport infrastructure. Spain and the UK, in particular, have been in the news for airport expansions recently.
Instead, Denise Auclair, Head of T&E’s Travel Smart Campaign, said: “Allowing uncontrolled aviation growth isn’t just terrible climate policy, it is bad economic policy.“ Auclair called the claim that airport expansion and ever more flights drive growth “a pure industry myth” and went on to argue: “Governments shouldn’t be swayed by these claims, which also ignore the negative consequences of air transport growth.”
Worse, the study finds that in specific areas of northern and western Europe, additional air traffic delivers “diminishing or even negative economic returns.” This phenomenon, which the researchers call “saturation” affects Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK, and Germany, where air travel is increasingly dominated by people holidaying abroad” and “business travel has stagnated or declined over the past decade.” As many as 75% of European countries “have seen business passenger numbers decline as compared to pre-pandemic levels (2019-2024),” the study points out.
In other areas, particularly “traditional tourism destinations”, the link between air transport and economic growth is “more complex,” the authors say. In Spain, Italy, and Portugal, for example, the report says shorter stays and “informal accommodations” are undermining the perceived wisdom about tourism, while the growth of rail and domestic tourism is providing growth without the need for flying.
On the other hand, there remain parts of Eastern Europe where “an air transport/economic growth relationship similar to that described by researchers in Western Europe in the 1990s and early 2000s” continues to support connectivity-led economic growth, the researchers recognised.
