The end of the war in Ukraine will bring far more than geopolitical relief to Europe. It will mark the beginning of one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history, creating a vast economic race to rebuild infrastructure, reconnect communities and reshape mobility across the continent’s eastern frontier.
While politicians will speak of peace agreements and security guarantees, businesses will ask a different question: who will build the peace economy?
The first people crossing Ukraine’s borders after a settlement are unlikely to be holidaymakers. They will be engineers, contractors, diplomats, development agencies, insurers, investors and members of the Ukrainian diaspora returning to assess homes, businesses and opportunities.
This means the country’s initial recovery will not resemble a traditional tourism rebound. Instead, it will be driven by a reconstruction mobility economy, where infrastructure projects and human movement reinforce one another. Hotels, serviced apartments, conference venues and transport hubs could become profitable long before beach resorts or leisure destinations recover.
According to estimates by the World Bank, the European Commission, the United Nations and the Ukrainian government, reconstruction needs have reached almost $600 billion. Transport alone accounts for more than $96 billion, while energy, housing and cultural infrastructure will require billions more.
This is about far more than replacing damaged buildings. It is an opportunity to redefine Ukraine’s transport network, economic geography and position as a European destination.
I met with @WorldBank Group President Ajay Banga to discuss continued assistance in assessing the damage inflicted on Ukraine and preparing the relevant reports.
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 18, 2025
I shared that Russia’s attacks are becoming increasingly brutal, which makes it vital to intensify efforts in pooling… pic.twitter.com/fmiJrK7w8S
Contractors before tourists
Tourism will return, but only after fundamental conditions are restored. Airspace must reopen, insurance providers must regain confidence, transport links need repairing, contaminated land must be cleared and reliable energy supplies re-established.
Until then, contractors will arrive before tourists.
Hotels in Kyiv, Lviv and other western cities are likely to be filled by infrastructure specialists, international lenders, diplomatic delegations and executives competing for reconstruction contracts. As a result, demand may shift towards extended-stay accommodation, corporate housing and conference facilities rather than conventional leisure hotels.
Western Ukraine is expected to recover first. Regions such as Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk have remained comparatively secure, maintain close links with the European Union and already possess functioning tourism infrastructure. Lviv could emerge as a centre for investment conferences, diplomatic meetings and cultural events linked to reconstruction.
The Carpathian region presents another opportunity. Existing wellness resorts could evolve into centres for rehabilitation, combining healthcare, wellness and leisure. However, policymakers will need to balance investment with sustainable planning to avoid uncontrolled development, environmental degradation and rising housing costs.
Kyiv is likely to become the administrative heart of reconstruction, while Odesa could eventually regain its role as Ukraine’s maritime gateway, although the revival of ports, cruise tourism and coastal hospitality will depend on long-term security and mine clearance.
Transport will shape the recovery
Transport will be central to Ukraine’s recovery. During the war, rail corridors through Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova became essential lifelines for people and goods. After peace, these routes could evolve into permanent economic corridors linking Ukraine more closely with the European Union.
Expanding European-gauge rail connections would improve trade and make cross-border travel faster and more attractive. Night trains, integrated ticketing systems and simplified border procedures could become the backbone of Ukraine’s early tourism recovery while commercial aviation remains limited.
Aviation, however, will not resume overnight. Airports require far more than political approval to reopen. Safety certification, air traffic management, insurance, energy resilience and security infrastructure will all have to be restored before airlines return. Lviv Airport may be among the first to reopen because of its proximity to the EU, while Kyiv’s Boryspil Airport would represent the greatest long-term economic prize, reconnecting Ukraine with European and global aviation networks.
Europe is Ukraine's strongest partner, top donor & key investor.
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) July 10, 2025
With €2.3 billion in agreements signed, set to unlock up to €10 billion in investments.
And a new European Flagship Fund for the Reconstruction of Ukraine, rebuilding businesses & homes. https://t.co/zkTbxPxdGj
Rebuilding responsibly
Healthcare could also become an important pillar of Ukraine’s recovery. The country will need extensive rehabilitation services for veterans, injured civilians and those living with long-term physical and psychological trauma. While these facilities will initially serve a humanitarian purpose, they could later position Ukraine as a regional centre for rehabilitation, prosthetics, reconstructive medicine and wellness.
Another challenge will be managing international interest in places that have become symbols of the war. Bucha, Irpin, Mariupol and other devastated communities will inevitably attract visitors seeking to understand what happened.
Ukraine should resist the temptation to commercialise these locations as “war tourism”. Instead, they should be developed as places of remembrance, education and reflection, with local communities helping shape how their stories are told. Revenue generated from visitors should contribute to memorials, rehabilitation programmes and local recovery rather than purely commercial activities.
The economic race after peace
Investment opportunities will extend well beyond tourism. The first wave of tourism- and mobility-related investment alone could amount to tens of billions of euros, creating employment across construction, transport, hospitality, healthcare, technology and cultural restoration. Yet Ukraine’s greatest challenge may not be securing finance, but developing bankable projects, ensuring transparent procurement and creating investment structures that inspire confidence among international investors.
The shape of Ukraine’s recovery will ultimately depend on how peace unfolds. A fragile ceasefire may encourage investment in western Ukraine while keeping aviation and maritime transport restricted. A more durable settlement backed by credible security guarantees would allow airports to reopen, international hotel brands to enter the market and leisure tourism gradually to return.
Even under the most optimistic scenario, recovery is unlikely to be evenly distributed. Western regions will naturally attract investment first because they present lower risks. Without careful public policy, this could widen the economic gap between western Ukraine and the communities in the east and south that have suffered the greatest destruction.
Ukraine’s reconstruction will reshape not only one country but the wider economic geography of Central and Eastern Europe. New railways, reopened airports, restored cultural landmarks and modern healthcare facilities will redefine mobility across the region.
Tourism will not simply benefit from this transformation; it will help drive it. Hotels will host engineers before holidaymakers. Trains will carry investors alongside returning families. Cultural restoration will strengthen both national identity and international appeal.
The companies and countries that succeed will be those that prepare before the peace agreement is signed, building partnerships, securing financing and developing projects that can move quickly once conditions allow.
When the war finally ends, the political negotiations may be be over. But the economic race to rebuild Ukraine will only just begin.
