Over the course of the next two decades, China will be overtaking the United States as the world’s largest market for air travel demand, according to the latest World Airport Traffic Forecasts (WATF) 2023–2052 dataset released by Airports Council International (ACI) World.
The report shows the evolution of the top 20 markets for air travel demand among other key air traffic findings. It covers data sourced from 141 countries, introducing 29 new countries, to provide granular forecasts for passengers, air cargo volumes (in metric tonnes) and aircraft movements.
The projections indicate that global passenger traffic is set to reach 9.7 billion by the end of 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, out of which 4 billion international and 5.7 billion domestic. Global passenger traffic will also double by 2042, reaching a total of 19.3 billion, made out of 8.7 billion passengers on international flights and 10.6 billion on domestic ones. By 2052, global passenger traffic is expected to reach close to 25 billion, approximately 2.5 times higher than the 2024 projections.
In the long-term, the global passenger market dynamic is expected to transition from advanced economies towards emerging and developing ones.
Luis Felipe de Oliveira, ACI World Director General
From 2023 to 2042, total passenger traffic worldwide is predicted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3%, with a steep recovery gradient observed in the first 3 years (9.1% CAGR for 2023 to 2026), then converge to the pre-Covid-19 growth rate of 3.6% CAGR for 2042 to 2052.
“In the long-term, the global passenger market dynamic is expected to transition from advanced economies towards emerging and developing ones as they experience significant urbanization and population increases, often combined with rapid economic growth favourably impacting their disposable income and willingness to travel”, said ACI World Director General Luis Felipe de Oliveira. “Investing responsibly in current and new infrastructure remains key to ensuring that we can sustainably meet capacity growth to maximize the social and economic benefits of aviation.”
Between 2023 and 2042, advanced economies are expected to have a CAGR of 3.2% for total passenger traffic, whereas emerging and developing economies are expected to have a more robust CAGR of 5.4%. Sizeable population bases and rapid rises in incomes in emerging markets are the main economic engines driving air transportation demand, according to ACI World.
