Aircraft manufacturer Boeing expects to make 44,000 commercial planes over the next 20 years. Boeing projected the number in its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which the company released ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow.
Air travel continues to grow and has now surpassed the pre-pandemic levels. In its CMO, Boeing said it expects passenger air traffic to increase by 4.7% annually. The global commercial fleet, in its turn, should grow by 3.2% on a yearly basis. The difference between those two numbers can be explained through the fact that load factors will be improved and planes will be operated for more hours per day compared to now.
“This is a challenging and inspiring era for aviation. The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we all work through ongoing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges”, said Brad McMullen, senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing at Boeing.
As far as specifics go, the report unveils single-aisle planes to be dominant. By 2043, they should account for 71% of the fleet, amounting in 33,380 new deliveries. However, the widebody fleet will double over the next 20 years – with a market need of 8,065 – and this especially in the Middle East. Twin-aisles should comprise 44% of the fleet in the area by 2043. Other than that, 1,525 regional jets and 1,005 freighters should be made by 2043. 22% of the new aircraft will be going to Eurasia, 20% to North America and 20% to China.
“As airlines respond to robust passenger demand, the services market continues to expand, not only as a result of fleet growth but also with an increased focus on reducing operating costs and deploying efficient and sustainable solutions”, explained David Abraham, senior vice president of Boeing Global Services Commercial Sales and Marketing.
The CMO also predicted some broader air traffic trends. Boeing expects the biggest growth in passenger traffic numbers in South Asia (7.4% increase), Southeast Asia (7.2%) and Africa (6.4%). If the aviation industry grows as expected, 2.4 million job openings will be created for pilots, technicians and cabin crew. Boeing also announced air cargo traffic should increase by 4.1% annually.
Boeing’s CMO comes nearly a year after the announcement of European aircraft manufacturer Airbus’ release of its global market forecast for 2023 to 2042 (GMF23). That report expected aircraft demand to double over the next 20 years, with almost 41,000 new Airbus deliveries expected by 2042. Recently, Airbus has been doing notably better than Boeing as far as orders and deliveries go, with the former delivering more than double Boeing’s output of commercial aircraft in March 2024 (63 versus 29). Part of the reason for that discrepancy might be the undergoing investigations by the US Federal Aviation Administration and the FBI concerning safety practices at the aerospace giant.
