The wide-bodied 747 was developed at the request of Pan Am to reduce the seat cost. Developed by Boeing, it was in production from 1968 until 2023; the original Jumbo Jet, 1,574, were built. The 747 series of aircraft had a lifespan of about 35 years, around 90,000 flying hours. Airbus estimates that their A320 series aircraft have a lifespan of around 60,000 flight hours or 24,000 flight cycles. The A380 series aircraft have a lifespan of around 25 years or 60,000 flight hours. The aviation file concludes that: “On average, commercial aircraft can last between 20 to 30 years. However, airlines often retire their planes earlier due to economic and operational reasons.” In September 2022 there were 23,904 aircraft active around the world and just short of five thousand grounded.
The airlines are pursuing a business-as-usual strategy and continuing to resist regulation. There are very large numbers of aircraft on order. Airbus has an order book for 6,631 aircraft, Boeing for 5,518, and adding the other manufacturers takes the total to 14,426. Planes are expensive, and the investment pays back over decades. Grounding aircraft early or re-engineering the engines to use a different fuel will doubtless be resisted on the grounds of cost.
Airbus is working with London Gatwick, easyJet and Air Products, the world’s largest hydrogen supplier, to expand hydrogen capability and infrastructure in the UK. Airbus has identified two primary uses for hydrogen in aviation:
- Hydrogen propulsion: Hydrogen can be combusted through modified gas-turbine engines or converted into electrical power that complements the gas turbine via fuel cells. The combination of both creates a highly efficient hybrid-electric propulsion chain powered entirely by hydrogen.
- Synthetic fuels: Hydrogen can be used to create e-fuels, which are generated exclusively through renewable energy.
Currently developing both, Airbus expects “to make the necessary decisions on the best combination of hydrogen technologies by 2025.” You can hear the panel presentation on Hydrogen at WTM London – a step change in aviation is coming. Hydrogen is the future of aviation.
As IATA concedes in its Net zero 2050: sustainable aviation fact sheet: “Whereas fossil fuels add to the overall level of CO2 by emitting carbon that had been previously locked away, SAF recycles the CO2, which has been absorbed by the biomass used in the feedstock during the course of its life.” [emphasis added]
But to avoid further global climate change, we need to reduce the amount of CO2 in our atmosphere. Just recycling it is not enough.
“In November 2023, The ICAO CAAF/3 agreed a global framework to promote SAF production in all geographies for international aviation to be 5% less carbon intensive by 2030, through the use of SAF,” IATA continues.
IATA is relying on SAF to deliver 65% of its 2050 net zero target, 19% from offsets and carbon capture a mere 13% from new technology (electric and hydrogen) and 3% from operational efficiency. So, two-thirds of aviation emissions will merely be recycling greenhouse gases rather than reducing them. Given that ICAO forecasts air transport will increase by an average of 4.3% per annum over the next 20 years, according to current forecasts and plans, aviation is unsustainable, and the proportion of greenhouse gases emitted by aviation will grow as other sectors reduce theirs.
As Angus Whitley has pointed out on Bloomberg “Air New Zealand Ltd.’s decision to ditch its 2030 emissions target suggests more airlines will also have to confront a harsh reality: There’s simply not enough sustainable fuel or new, more-efficient aircraft.” SAF will be just 0.5% of total fuel requirements this year, and it is in both short supply and expensive.
Doubtless, other airlines will follow Air New Zealand’s example – they are at least being transparent about the difficulties.
It is a matter of regret that easyJet is almost alone in embracing hydrogen
