Against all odds and despite earlier forecasts of a potentially catastrophic year for global travel, neither war nor high fuel prices seem to have dampened people’s desire to travel. Quite the contrary, international arrivals are expected to reach a record 1.57 billion in 2026, with Europe seeing an increase of 5%.
Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company, compiled the data for the report, which covers more than 185 countries and was released at the opening of World Travel Market (WTM) in London.
It forecasts a 2% increase in international arrivals compared to 2025, with total overnight visitors, both domestic and international, expected to reach 23.9 billion.
Spending is also forecast to rise by 9%, reaching €6.97 trillion.
Despite rising living costs, leisure travel remains a priority for tourists, according to Dave Goodger, Tourism Economics’ Managing Director for Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA).
In the report, Goodger noted that “travellers are more active in 2026 than ever before”. The notable change was not that travel remained a priority in their budgets, but that travellers were “adapting how and where they visit in response to ongoing disruption and cost-of-living pressures. The industry is on course for another record year”.
Another trend is the growing popularity of event-related travel: 58% of international travellers have taken a trip abroad in the past two years to attend a cultural or sporting event, possibly influenced by the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
One of the big “winners” of these changing travel habits is Europe, which is expected to see a 5% increase in international arrivals this year.
This trend is unlikely to be short-lived, with the continent forecast to welcome 226 million more international arrivals by 2032 than in 2026.
Europe also remains the world’s number one destination for leisure nights, which are expected to increase by 4%. Leisure spending in Europe by both domestic and international visitors is forecast to reach €1.83 trillion.
One reason for Europe’s strong performance is that travellers are becoming more careful about where they fly due to geopolitical instability, costs and safety concerns.
This trend is global, as the report forecasts a 3% increase in travel within the same region, coupled with a 3% decrease in inter-regional travel, including long-haul.
Travellers have learned the hard way from the disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East earlier this year, when much of the region’s airspace was closed, blocking major routes between Europe and Asia and affecting hundreds of thousands of passengers.
Once the skies began to clear, travellers faced another hurdle in the form of soaring fuel prices, which pushed up inflation and travel costs. The situation remains uncertain.
The Middle East has suffered the sharpest decline and is expected to register a 40% drop in international arrivals this year.
Forecasts for 2027 are more optimistic, predicting an 8% increase in international arrivals worldwide and a rebound in inter-regional travel.
However, these projections depend on the situation in the Middle East improving and the conflict not escalating further.
If these conditions are met, the region could see a 43% recovery in international arrivals, while Europe is expected to register a further 5% increase.
Asia and Oceania are expected to grow by 11%, while Latin America is predicted to grow by 7%, Africa by 6%, and North America by 4%.
Looking further ahead, the report forecasts that the number of international overnight arrivals worldwide could reach 2.2 billion by 2032.
These figures will depend on rising incomes, expanded aviation infrastructure and accommodation capacity worldwide, as well as travellers continuing to show the same wanderlust as before, or perhaps even more.
