Four minerals — lithium, cobalt, copper and nickel — will be the basis of the energy transition. As with other natural resources, supply is limited, but what are the countries with the largest reserves?
1. From fossil fuels to raw materials
Fossil fuels, the bedrock of our industrialized world for over a century, have undeniably fueled unprecedented progress and growth. However, their extraction and burning have exacted a heavy toll on our planet, with soaring greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradation. The realization of these dire consequences has spurred a global awakening, driving us toward cleaner, more responsible energy sources.
Today, critical raw materials play an essential role in the development of clean technologies such as wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries. Only a select few countries are sitting on “gold mines” of so-called critical minerals that they hope will make them winners of the same natural resource lottery in which petrostates like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have basked since the dawn of the “Age of Oil”.
“It is always difficult to judge reserves as new mines are opened every year, but China, Australia and Indonesia have most of the optimised production right now,” said Barbara Monterrubio, energy managing analyst at GlobalData, Energy Monitor’s parent company. “Probably the ones that are producing the most right now will be the ones with the highest reserves by net zero in 2050. They will be the ones that own and manage all the value chains, and that is unlikely to change even if new reserves are discovered.”
2. Lithium, Cobalt, Copper and Nickel
Lithium is arguably the single most important critical mineral for the energy transition — a fundamental component of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries, which power EVs and battery energy storage systems.
Cobalt is another key ingredient in Li-ion batteries, supporting their stability and performance by preventing overheating and extending their lifespans.
Another indispensable mineral for the energy transition is copper. Copper is a vital component for modern electrical systems, used in power generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure, as well as in renewables technologies such as solar panels and wind turbines.
Nickel is another key ingredient in Li-ion batteries, particularly in advanced cathode chemistries. High-nickel cathodes support a higher energy density and enhanced battery performance, improving the range and functionality of EVs and the efficacy of battery energy storage systems.
3. Top ten powerhouses
Australia and Chile boast the largest reserves of lithium available in mines around the world today, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS). The survey also revealed the world’s identified lithium resources to be around 98 million tonnes total. These include a vast 21 million tonnes in Bolivia, 20 million tonnes in Argentina and 11 million tonnes in Chile.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is by far the largest global supplier of cobalt, possessing almost half of all cobalt reserves in global mines today.
“Even if countries have realised the potential of their reserves, they might not have the money to exploit it,” said Monterrubio. “In many African countries right now, it is Chinese companies that are exploiting these resources, not the country itself.”
The world’s identified terrestrial cobalt resources are around 25 million tonnes, mostly residing in deposits in Australia, Canada, Cuba, the DRC, Russia, the US and Zambia.
Chile boasts the lion’s share of the copper that exists in global mines today, possessing 20% of global supply. There is currently a global shortage in copper markets that could last until 2030, fuelled by increasingly challenged South American supply streams and higher demand pressures.
Australia and Indonesia boast the world’s largest reserves of nickel in global mines today. Both have 21 million tonnes of the stuff, which in today’s prices equates to approximately $425bn. Brazil (16 million tonnes), Russia (7.5 million tonnes) and New Caledonia (7.1 million tonnes), also possess substantial reserves.
Overall, when combining the value of all the lithium, cobalt, copper and nickel reserves in mines today, Chile and Australia stand out as the big winners. Chile sits atop the lot, with an eye-watering $1.89trn worth of critical mineral reserves, followed by Australia’s hefty $1.49trn holdings. Russia, Peru and Indonesia lead the best of the rest, with $671bn, $667bn and $644bn reserves, respectively, followed by Mexico ($437bn), the DRC ($356bn), Brazil ($333bn), Poland ($247bn) and Kazakhstan ($165bn).
