Europe is once again facing a brutally hot summer, according to meteorologists and weather forecasts. After ten months running of record-beating global highs and with ocean surface temperatures in the Atlantic hotter than any period in the last 40 years at least, there is little reason to expect a change in the trend, scientists say.
Summer 2024 is therefore predicted to bring temperatures hotter than those usually felt in the season, and along with it, droughts and intense heatwaves affecting the majority of the European region.
Risk of heatwaves, wildfires and droughts
Meteo France is anticipating the next three months to see hotter than usual temperatures in the territory. Spain and Italy too are likely to see “unusually hot” temperatures once more from May, says online weather and risk forecaster Atmospheric G2.
Such scorching weather early in the summer brings a risk of exceptionally dry conditions and wildfires later in the season, according to Atmopsheric G2 meteorologist, Olivia Birch. “Summer 2024 could challenge the warmth of summer 2022,” Birch said. “Widely dry conditions are expected mid toward late summer, increasing the risk of heat waves and droughts.” Birch put the spiking temperatures and ensuing extreme weather events down to the “recent acceleration in global warming”.
Scandinavia will see conditions get cooler, but it is not just southern or Mediterranean countries (whose leaders have grouped together to call for climate action) at risk either. The UK too will experience an exceptionally warm May, say the forecasters, though the mercury may settle back to a more normal level by the end of the month.
Farming and traditional destinations under pressure
Europe’s farming output is likely to take a blow if the forecasts are correct. But, while the hotter than average temperatures in recent months have reportedly helped dry out water-logged fields that previously delayed the sowing of crops, the continuing heatwave is causing concern, especially for key growing regions in the Ukraine and Russia, with SovEcon agricultural consultancy slashing seasonal estimates for Russian crop production and, according to Commodity Weather Group, up to 50% of Black Sea crop-growing in jeopardy.
The travel industry is also seeing the effects of climate change and will be watching trends in bookings carefully. Wildfires caused panicked evacuations in resorts in Rhodes last year and some observers have noted that consumers are waiting until later in the seasons to take a break, and choosing to head towards more northern destinations, rather than the traditional southern climes.
