A new forecast from travel intelligence firm ForwardKeys is predicting “interesting shifts in travel behaviour” from US consumers during 2025, with city breaks up in popularity, some traditional favourite destinations losing arrivals, and others surging thanks to increased competition and improved long-haul connectivity.
US tourists come second only to the Chinese in terms of their international tourism spend, which amounted to $158.7 billion USD in 2023 according to Statista. That means “understanding their travel intentions and emerging trends is of huge economic importance” ForwardKeys said, enabling destinations worldwide to “optimise their marketing strategies, infrastructure, and resource allocation to capitalise on opportunities and mitigate potential downturns.”
London, Paris, Rome, and Dublin still popular
With that in mind, ForwardKeys has used its proprietary Total Air Market algorithm to produce what it calls “a cutting-edge 12-month forecast.” Launched in February as part of the firms Destination Gateway solution, the tool provides “a precise, comprehensive, month-by-month picture of the year ahead in air travel” – including for the US market.
Its US analysis shows that the “top four destinations from summer 2024 – London, Paris, Rome, and Dublin – are projected to remain the most popular choices for US travellers in 2025.” London is forecast to take 16.6% of the pie, with 826,000 US visitors predicted in July and August 2025 alone. However, though that is more than double its nearest rival, Paris, it is in fact a decline of 2% in visitor numbers.
“Pivot westward”
Despite a growing US preference for city breaks, Reykjavik is forecast to see 12% fewer US arrivals, even though Icelandair’s has a popular stopover program. It’s not all gloom in the north of Europe, however. Finland’s Helsinki (+16%) is predicted to attract more US tourists this summer, fuelled by a 59% surge in direct flight capacity and what ForwardKeys is calling “a pivot westward following the invasion of Ukraine and the impossibility for Finnish carriers to fly over Russia.”
The Danish capital Copenhagen is also set to see +3% more visitors, in addition to rising stars Berlin and Porto, each expected to climb three spots in the US visitor ranking thanks to growth forecast at 8% and 9% respectively. The Iberian Peninsula will see further gains in Spain’s Bilbao and Portugal’s Faro, which are predicted to climb 6 and 15 positions in the ranking respectively.
Overall, any potential increase in tourism from the US is described in a LinkedIn post by ForwardKeys Intelligence and Marketing Director, Olivier Ponti, as “a double win: it strengthens local economies and provides US travellers with the attractive option of tax-free shopping, which is a boon for European retailers.”
