According to an OECD forecast included in the Global Plastics Outlook Policy Scenarios to 2060 report from June 2022, unless serious, stringent and coordinated policies are taken soon, global plastic waste will triple by 2060.
The current use of plastics is far from circular, generating a significant amount of plastic waste that ends up in the environment.
OECD report
According to the baseline scenario of the forecast, plastic waste is projected to rise from 353 million tonnes in 2019 to 1,014 million tonnes in 2060. Most of this plastic waste comes from packaging and a good part does not get recycled, ending up being collected with other materials in the form of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW), highlights the paper.
Moreover, the increase of plastic waste in countries with emerging and developing economies, in Asia and Africa, is expected to be sharper, more than quadruples to 2060, linked to population growth and rising living standards. Plastic waste production is expected to increase in non-OECD countries from 181 million tonnes in 2019 to 657 million tonnes in 2060, a significant part of this increase happening already before 2030. However, in 2060 OECD countries will still produce much more plastic waste per capita, about 238 kg, than non-OECD countries, with only 77 kg.
Regarding recycling, OECD projects that 33 million tonnes of recycled plastic waste in 2019 will increase to 176 million tonnes in 2060, the share in total waste increasing as well, from 9% of total plastic waste getting recycled in 2019 to 17% in 2060. “This is a key indicator of circularity, together with the share of secondary plastics in total plastics production presented in Chapter 3, and shows that over time the global plastic economy becomes more circular”, says the report.
Although incineration and landfilling also increase in quantity, their share does not really change. The amount of landfilled plastic waste triples from 174 million tonnes in 2019 to 507 million tonnes in 2060, increasing from 49% to just 50%, while incinerated waste increases from 67 million tonnes to 179 million tonnes, decreasing by just 1% to 18%.
Mismanaged waste is projected to grow more slowly than other end-of-life fates. This is because recycling absorbs a bigger share of waste, and emerging countries invest part of their additional income in improved waste management facilities and litter collection. Consequently, the share of mismanaged waste decreases from 22% in 2019 to just 15% in 2060. However, the amount of mismanaged waste still increases, driven by the growth in waste, nearly doubling from 79 million tonnes in 2019 to 153 million tonnes in 2060.
