A new study warns that Parkinson’s disease cases will more than double by 2050, reaching 25 million worldwide. Countries with poorer socioeconomic conditions and ageing populations are expected to see the steepest rise, according to researchers from Capital Medical University in Beijing, China.
The findings, published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ), project a 112% increase in Parkinson’s cases compared to 2021 levels, primarily driven by population ageing (89%) and overall population growth (20%).
Researchers analysed data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study, estimating Parkinson’s prevalence across 195 countries and territories from 2022 to 2050. Their calculations predict that by 2050, there will be 25.2 million cases globally.
Although cases will rise worldwide, countries with lower socioeconomic status and rapidly ageing populations will be the most affected. The study identifies several risk factors, including:
- Environmental hazards (air pollution, pesticides)
- Climate change
- Unhealthy lifestyles
- Metabolic diseases
- Dietary factors
Where will Parkinson’s cases surge the most?
The study forecasts the largest rise in cases in East Asia, with China and Japan expected to account for 10.9 million cases by 2050. South Asia follows, with 6.8 million cases.
The steepest percentage increase is expected in Sub-Saharan Africa, where Parkinson’s cases are projected to grow by 292%. Meanwhile, Oceania and Australasia are expected to have the lowest prevalence.
Europe’s Parkinson’s burden
In Europe, Western European countries will see a 50% increase, while Central and Eastern Europe will experience a 28% rise. The highest prevalence rates are expected to persist in Germany, Italy, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom.
However, Italy is the only country expected to see a decline in cases, from 190,000 in 2021 to 177,000 in 2050.
Call for action
On a global scale, the prevalence per 100,000 people is projected to increase by 76%. When adjusted for age differences (age-standardised prevalence), the increase amounts to 55%.
The study calls for urgent action to address the growing burden of Parkinson’s disease, highlighting the need for advanced treatments and research.
“An urgent need exists for future research to focus on the development of novel drugs, gene engineering techniques, and cell replacement therapies that are aimed at modifying the course of the disease and improving patients’ quality of life,” the scientists conclude.
