Global renewable fuel production is expected to an estimated capacity 69 billion litters (55 million tonnes) by 2028, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) will comprise a portion of this growing output which is being achieved through new renewable fuel refineries and the expansion of existing facilities. Importantly, the expected production has a wide geographic footprint covering North America, Europe and Asia Pacific.
The expected production increase is extremely encouraging. Seeing this, we need governments to act to ensure that SAF gets its fair production share.Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General
Governments need to provide production incentives for SAF to support aviation’s energy transition, said IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh during the association’s annual general meeting in Istanbul. “And we need continued approval for more diversification of methods and feedstocks available for SAF production. With these two measures successfully in place, we can be confident that the expected 2028 production levels will be realistically aligned with our recently published roadmaps to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. That is important as we are counting on SAF to provide about 62% of the carbon mitigation needed in 2050.”
Trends supporting this optimistic outlook are already visible. In 2022, SAF production tripled to some 300 million litters (240,000 tonnes) and project announcements for potential SAF producers are rapidly growing. IATA counts over 130 relevant renewable fuel projects announced by more than 85 producers across 30 countries. Each of these projects has either announced the intent or commitment to produce SAF within their wider product slate of renewable fuels. Typically, there is a 3 –5-year lag between a project announcement and its commercialization date. This implies that further renewable fuel capacity out until 2030 could still be announced over the following years.
If renewable energy production reaches 69 billion litters by 2028, as estimated, the trajectory to 100 billion litters (80 million tonnes) by 2030 would be on track. Even with just 30% of the estimated SAF production, the industry could achieve 30 billion litters (24 million tonnes) of by 2030.
People have experienced governments’ role in the transition to green energy for electricity. They now expect it for SAF.Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General
“Achieving the necessary SAF percentage output from these new and expanding facilities is not a given. But with governments the world-over agreeing at ICAO to a long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) of net zero by 2050, they now share accountability for aviation’s decarbonization. That means establishing a policy framework to ensure that aviation gets the needed share of renewable energy production in SAF”, noted Walsh.
At present, it is expected that 85% of future SAF volume over the next five years will be derived from just one of nine certified pathways, being Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), which is dependent on limited availability of feedstock such as waste fat, oil and grease feedstocks (FOGs, recognized by industry as second-generation feedstock).
There are 3 main avenues for production diversification identified by IATA: scaling already certified SAF pathways, such as Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) & Fischer-Tropsch (FT), accelerating research and development for SAF production pathways that are currently in development and scaling up of feedstock or feedstock conversion technology.
Accelerating these avenues to commercialized levels will require policy leadership from governments, IATA argued in a statement. “To start, there is an impending need for the harmonization of core SAF policies, as a means of reducing administrative, logistical and geographic barriers to entry for new market entrants, including producers, feedstock providers, and offtakes.”
The pressing challenge is finding the capital needed to fund the development of new technology and production facilities. Governments must look at the broader sustainability picture with these investments, as SAF can be produced from surplus forestry and agricultural residues, municipal solid waste, food waste and wet wastes (third generation feedstocks). “Producing SAF from these can create long-term return on investment opportunities for governments, with the potential of financing the clean-up of the environment, supporting developing economies and delivering a future-proofed intersection of energy transition and energy security”, the association highlighted.