Air traffic is expected to rebound back to pre-pandemic levels, reaching between 70% to 90% of 2019 levels by the end of 2022. The predictions are from Eurocontrol, the European air navigation body, which has recognised the resilience of the aviation sector in Europe, despite saying that Omicron diverted traffic away from their optimistic forecast.
1. Vaccination uptake
The forecast takes into account the evolving pandemic situation and it stresses that mass vaccinations and the EU certificate have helped to drive a strong summer traffic bounce. However, total 2021 traffic was -44% of 2019 levels, 4.9 million flights fewer than 2019 – and not substantially better than 2020 — 6.1 million fewer.
The year 2021 saw a partial but sustained traffic recovery in Europe, starting with -64% in January vs 2019 levels, and ending it at -22% of 2019 levels in December, according to Eurocontrol.
“Summer 2021 delivered a better than expected recovery, and despite a worsening pandemic situation once more, as first Delta then Omicron have proven successful at evading vaccines, our sector is well placed to recover fairly swiftly to close to 2019 levels if confidence returns,” stated Eurocontrol.
2. Resilience
Overall, the EU navigation body considers that aviation showed its resilience in 2021 to a crisis that had paralysed economies in 2020. Despite the pandemic, European societies have learned to manage the crisis, Eurocontrol says, and aviation has been able to provide basic connectivity. Yet, at around 55%, flight choice within Europe lags well behind traffic levels.
In terms of airline performance, tor the seventh year in a row, Ryanair remained the top airline in Europe over 2021, increasing capacity impressively over the summer to reach above 100% of 2019 levels in the closing months of the year. In second comes Turkish Airlines, followed by Air France, Lufhtansa, easyJet and KLM.
Last week, Germany was the busiest EU country week with 2,634 flights/day (46% fewer than in 2019), ahead of Spain (2,467, -30%) and the UK (2,378, -51%), said Eurocontrol’s Director-General Eamonn Brennan.
According to the report, Heathrow’s traffic recovered to just 35% down on 2019 in December, but remained behind Amsterdam (-20%), Paris Charles de Gaulle and Frankfurt (-24%) and Madrid (-26%).
Heathrow lost the highest number of flights, 283,000, of any European airport in 2021, followed by Munich which lost 264,000. But Manchester was the hardest hit in percentage of flight traffic, with two-thirds (67%) fewer flights in 2021 than 2019.
3. Future of aviation
Recently, Eurocontrol and the Airports Council International Europe (ACI Europe) have signed a partnership agreement to boost the future of European aviation and to increase stability, safety and sustainability across the sector.
The agreement replaces an existing framework signed in 2008 and with increased pledges and ambitions, including efficiency in air transport and sustainable air transport, through the development and outreach of Airport Credit Accreditation — the global standard for carbon management and reduction at airports.
“For Europe’s airports, recovering from Covid-19 and the imperative to ‘Build Back Better’ means chasing every opportunity to increase their operational efficiency and reduce their environmental footprint. The challenges we face in progressing further and the interconnected nature of aviation means enhanced collaboration and integration are key,” said ACI Europe’s Director-General Olivier Jankovec.
“Eurocontrol is focused on supporting European aviation and is working closely with airports to deliver enhanced operational efficiency and sustainable solutions as we recover from the pandemic,“ said Brennan.
