The Chinese outbound travel market looks set to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2025, according to a majority of the country’s travel agents surveyed in December 2024 by marketing solutions provider Dragon Trail International.
These findings, taken from over 450 respondents, were revealed at a recent webinar for mainland Chinese travel agencies. They show that 57% of agents believe the Chinese outbound travel market will return to pre-pandemic levels before the end of the year, while another 22% anticipate full recovery by 2026.
Who will benefit?
Asia is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of the recovery in international tourism from China. Additionally, Europe also looks set to recover by the end of 2025, 60% of respondents believe.
These findings are reflected in the International Travel Outlook Report from Moodie Davitt and Forward Keys. The report notes that Chinese travellers are embracing more long-haul options and that Europe saw substantial growth over 2024 for France (+35%), the UK (+32%), Spain (+32%), Italy (+24% ) and Germany (+20%).
Despite uplifts in seat capacity that has made North America easier to reach for Chinese visitors this year, the USA will have to remain patient and focus not on a resurgence of arrivals but an uptick in tourist spend, according to the agents. Meanwhile, Africa and Latin America will have to wait even longer before seeing the Chinese return.
Consumer confidence up but cost is still king
Driving the recovery, the agents believe, is an increase in Chinese consumer confidence thanks to an increasingly positive economic outlook and rising disposable income. 71% of respondents said they thought China’s economic environment would be a positive influence on the outbound travel market over the coming year and 68% expressed an optimistic view of consumer confidence.
However, 45% of the travel agents surveyed indicated that the costs of travel could negatively affect demand. Echoing recent UK findings by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) about cost and quality being king, the Chinese stakeholders note that competitive pricing is essential if operators want to attract clients.
Complications and headwinds
Hassle-free travel is also high on the agenda, and simplified visa arrangements can make all the difference to consumers torn between destinations. There is a high expectation of red tape being removed in nearby and culturally-similar destinations in East Asia and Southeast Asia, Dragon Trail says. Likewise, Forward Keys notes that visa-free destinations such as Malaysia, Singapore (and the UAE) have been “standout performers, with growth of +41%, +26%, and +14% respectively compared to their performance in 2019.”
But the biggest headwind for most Chinese travel consumers when it comes to choosing where to go is security. Challenging international political climates, geopolitical tensions and heightened safety risks are all factors likely to deter the Chinese consumer.
Factors driving growth
Areas and segments where the agents say growth is on its way include the so-called “silver travel” market, with older Chinese consumers ripe to be picked.
Forward Keys data shows, “an increase in solo travellers (+8% over 2019) and couples (+6%) for regional travel, reflecting a growing preference among Chinese travellers for more independent travel experiences.” This is confirmed by an increase in interest for unusual, “exotic” and further-flung destinations, noted by the Dragon Trail survey.
Nonetheless, security, as mentioned above, remains critical, meaning that well-developed economies are also something the Chinese are looking for.
