China’s carbon dioxide emissions have stopped rising or dropped over the last year and a half, a new study shows. The data has prompted speculation that the largest CO2 polluter in the world, responsible for 30% of global emissions, has passed the point of peak carbon pollution. But experts urge caution, pointing out that Chinese policy leaves “room for emissions to increase” for several years.
The study, by analysts from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, and published by Carbon Brief, finds that emissions from China’s traditionally coal-intensive power sector were flat in the third quarter of 2025. That’s despite demand surging by 2.4% in the first half of the year. This was achieved, the authors say, “thanks to electricity generation from solar growing by 46% and wind by 11% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025.” Combined with “small increases” in generation from nuclear and hydropower, non-fossil power sources covered almost 90% of the increase in demand.
China is now on track for a new renewables record for 2025. In addition, oil demand and transport emissions fell by five percent in the third quarter, partly driven by the “rapid adoption” of electric vehicles (EVs). October, usually a time of increased diesel, petrol and jet fuel demand due to the week-long national holiday, saw demand fall by between four and five percent across all three fuel types; petrol consumption fell eight percent year-on-year.
However, those positives were offset to some extent by carbon pollution from plastics and chemical production, which grew by 10%. The accompanying 10% increase in oil consumption in sectors other than transport meant there was a 2% rise in oil consumption overall for the third quarter. Gas demand and emissions also grew, by three percent overall, up by nine percent in the power sector and by two percent elsewhere.
One important driver of increasing consumer demand over the summer months is the “increased prevalence of air conditioning” and a meteorological trend towards hotter summers, pushing the growth rate in total power demand up to 6.8% during the warmer months, compared with 4.6% for the rest of the year.
Another risk that could upset China’s falling emissions trend is a slowdown in wind and solar installations in recent months, blamed on a new contracting system that came into force in May 2025, removing price guarantees aligned with coal. A “major rush” on installation projects was seen prior to the deadline and has been followed by a relative lull. If that lull becomes a “sustained slowdown” in solar and wind deployment, Chinese power sector emissions would “begin to creep up again,” the report’s authors warn. Much will depend on the policy to be announced in China’s 15th Five Year Plan covering 2026 to 2030.
But for now, and amid the COP30 climate talks, China is raking in praise. COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago said: “China is coming up with solutions that are for everyone, not just China.” Focusing on solar panels, he said they “are cheaper, they’re so competitive, that they are everywhere now. If you’re thinking of climate change, this is good.”
And new UN data published by the UN on 10 November 2025 suggesting the world could achieve a 12% emissions reduction in the next decade, has been hailed as “a big deal,” by the executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Simon Stiell, who said: “Every fraction of a degree of heating avoided will save millions of lives and billions of dollars in climate damage.”
