In line with predictions, Canadians are shunning travel to the United States in retaliation for trade tariffs and perceived insults made by US President Donald Trump. As March approaches, usually a boom month second only to August for Canadian trips across the border, the US travel and tourism sector is bracing itself for below-average revenue. Meanwhile, commentators are analysing the potential knock-on effects of a Canadian US boycott.
Economically, the impact on US travel and tourism could be huge. Canada sends more visitors to the US than any other foreign country and the US Travel Association has said there were 20.4 million Canadian visitors in 2024. Their $20.5 billion spend supported 140,000 American jobs, meaning if only 10% of Canadians decide against the US as their destination, over $2 billion could be lost and 14,000 jobs could go.
Which states will suffer most?
The states most likely to feel the impact of Canadians staying away are Florida, California, Nevada, New York, and Texas. These five states regularly source up to 38% and more of their visitors from Canada. The New York Post notes that the loss of so-called “snowbirds” (the Canadians who have been making the Sunshine State of Florida their winter home for half a century) has been a “gut punch” that nearly brought Stacy Ritter, CEO of Visit Lauderdale, to tears.
However, Forbes has suggested that the idea of fewer crowds could prompt a surge in domestic travel, with US vacationers tempted by easier access, particularly for bucket-list destinations such as Florida’s theme parks and beaches, city lights in New York and Las Vegas, or Yosemite’s natural skyline in California. Less footfall could also give fragile ecosystems such as Florida’s Everglades or the iconic coastal roads of California’s Big Sur some reprieve from the effects of overcrowding.
Canadian businesses also affected by downturn
It’s also worth noting that Canadian businesses could suffer, and already are, as a result of their countrymen’s own fury. When it comes to the skies, Calgary-based Westjet, Canada’s second biggest airline, has said it is looking at a drop in demand of around 25%. Flag carrier Air Canada is also “anticipating that there could be a slowdown,” in the words of Mark Galardo, the airline’s executive vice president for revenue and network planning, speaking on a February earnings call.
At a time of year when bookings for US trips are traditionally soaring, Canadian tour operators, such as Vancouver’s Travel Group, are seeing “a complete drop off in any new requests or new interest in U.S. travel,” according to one of its consultants, McKenzie McMillan, who said clients are instead favouring Mexican, European, Icelandic, and Asian destinations.
Motor coach tour company, Maple Leaf, is in a similar, if not worse, position. Having had to call-off an April excursion to New York and with the same problem looming in May, it estimates US cancellations at 40% and losses in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.
23% increase in American car-based trips to Canada
One brighter note for the Canadian industry however is the current exchange rate. The Canadian dollar is now valued at around 30 cents less than the greenback and that poor ratio could be contributing to lukewarm Canadian bookings for the US.
That means, despite the cross-border tensions, that Americans remain enthusiastic about visiting their northern cousins. Statistics Canada data for January shows the number of US car visitors (and therefore potential shoppers) to Canada was 707,000, up over 23% year-on-year.
