For the travel sector, the United States mid-term elections present a patchwork of uncertainty. International tourism to the US has fallen month after month since Trump took power for the second time in 2024. Americans too have been postponing major financial decisions, including their travel spending. Airfares, cruise prices, and road trips have suffered from spiking fuel costs since the US-Israel war on Iran began. Raised prices at national parks, heightened border security, and ensuing foreign government travel warnings have dampened travel intentions. As the mid-term review of Trump’s performance takes place, what are the implications for an already beleaguered marketplace?
Across 2025, four million fewer visitors went to the States than in 2024 (68 million compared to 72 million), and tourist spending fell by $8 billion. According to recent figures from the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO), overseas visits (excluding Mexico and Canada) are now down 5.7% year-on-year to September 2026. Western European visitors, the most important overseas source market for US tourism stakeholders, have dropped 8.7%.
Commentators have dubbed the decline the “Trump Slump,” since it has coincided almost exactly with President Donald Trump’s second mandate. Trump’s perceived negativity towards outsiders, controversial foreign tariffs, and strict border policies have been blamed. If Trump’s Republicans receive a strong vote of disapproval from Americans in the midterms, it’s possible that international visitors will relent, travel intentions will warm up, and the dire job warnings made by the US Travel Association will recede.
There is also the fate of the bipartisan-sponsored VISIT USA Act. It proposes the transfer of $160 million to Brand USA to provide destination managers with much-needed resources to promote the US to visitors (since 2025’s One Big Beautiful Bill slashed its funds by 80% and staffing by 15%). The bill has struggled to pass, partly because the responsible Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation is chaired by the Republican Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), who, Travel Weekly and Skift note, has a tendency to oppose government-backed tourism programs. Post-midterm changes to committee make-up could go either way, helping or hindering that injection of funds.
Appealing to foreign markets is not the only concern. A July survey commissioned by shopping platform Smarty and reported by Money Lion found that half of Americans are putting off spending due to household financial headwinds, with a large part of the pain caused by the Middle East oil crisis. Over a quarter (26%) of Americans who responded to the poll are delaying travel spending.
The midterms could provide some relief. Late September YouGov polling found 57.2% of Americans are unhappy with Republican Party positions, and a CNBC survey found 52% want a Democrat-controlled Congress. If that happens, at least for those who voted for it, optimism, consumer, and investor confidence could all benefit from an uptick. Pollsters and analysts reported by Skift put the Democrats’ chances of winning the House between 78% and 91%, and the Senate at 57% to 69%.
However, whether any ensuing surge in “optimism” will translate into higher spending and more trips booked still probably depends on how the election affects a whole wishlist of goods, including oil prices. Some argue that, if Democrats win back control of, say, the House Foreign Affairs Committee, any general boost to confidence could be offset by efforts to re-impose blocks on Russian diesel supplies, which might send fuel and energy prices back up. But a quick fact-check reveals that, as of 2 November, Trump enabling the flow of Russian diesel had made no difference to rising prices. The LA Times reports that: “The week before his announcement, the average diesel price in the U.S. was $6.20 per gallon. At the beginning of last week, the average was $6.35.”
For holiday travellers contemplating fuel bills that are up by over a third year-on-year, that points to the end of the war in Iran and the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz as bigger keys to easing prices than the Russian supply chain. Any pressure voters are seen to put on Trump’s Middle East policies could, then, unlock their spending.
But there’s another caveat, and it’s to do with the timing of the elections. The midterms take place just ahead of immovable family feasts such as Thanksgiving and Christmas. Nobody wants to disappoint grandma at the last minute, or turn up unexpectedly only to be greeted by a meal prepared for one. That could mean, for many households, any celebrations (or lack thereof) are already locked in and accounted for, limiting any immediate post-vote changes in travel consumer behaviour.
While pump prices and airfares could in theory come down quite quickly, they are also affected by factors such as capacity, competition, demand, and how far ahead bookings are made. In conclusion, the mid-term effect on travel is likely to be seen more in the long term than the short term.
