By 2050, almost 60% of the world’s adult population will be classed as obese, and a third of under-25-year-olds will be overweight or obese, according to a new study carried out using data from 200 countries and published in The Lancet.
The research, led by Professor Emmanuela Gakidou, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), at the University of Washington in the US, warns that obesity rates are likely to increase quickly among people in lower-income countries over the next 10 years. This could lead to a health care crisis due to vulnerable systems in those places and result in a “profound tragedy”, unless urgent action is taken, the scientists say.
Obesity has doubled in last three decades
Obesity levels worldwide have already doubled since 1991, the study shows, with a billion adult males and 1.1 billion women – almost half the global adult population –already living with such conditions by 2021. If that 30-year trend continues over the next 25 years, about 57.4% of men and 60.3% of women will be living with obesity by 2050.
China, India, and the US are the countries most likely to top the obesity scale by 2050, according to the raw numbers. But obesity levels in sub-Saharan African nations are forecast to increase 250% by 2050, meaning 522 million on the continent could be living with excess weight and the health problems that brings. Nigeria was highlighted as a country that could come in fourth in the obese ranking if the issue is not tackled.
Gakidou called the phenomenon an “unprecedented global epidemic” caused by “a monumental societal failure.” This can be addressed however, if governments use the dataset and its insights to identify “priority populations experiencing the greatest burdens of obesity who require immediate intervention and treatment,” she said, adding that those at risk should be “primarily targeted with prevention strategies.”
Teenage girls at risk
The co-author on the report, Dr Jessica Kerr of the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia, echoed that call to action and noted a subset of teenage girls particularly at risk “in North America, Australasia, Oceania, North Africa and the Middle East, and Latin America that are expected to tip over to obesity predominance and require urgent, multifaceted intervention and treatment.” This would help prevent “intergenerational transmission of obesity,” she said.
Health problems associated with excess weight include a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, cardiovascular diseases, and some cancers. The study calculates that weight issues are the cause of 1.6 million premature deaths every year.
The researchers called for a multi-faceted approach that could include selected use of weight-loss drugs and surgeries, as well as preventative therapies and societal action. The latter could include policies on exercise, as well as taxation levers and food labelling, changes advocated by the The World Obesity Federation.
