Following a continued strong recovery of tourism in 2023, the latest data from the UN World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) shows that international tourism levels ended last year at 88% of 2019 levels and is predicted to exceed pre-pandemic figures by 2% by the end of 2024.
1. Recovery in 2023
According to the first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of the year, an estimated 1.3 billion international arrivals were recorded last year. Over the course of 2024, the agency expects an “unleashing of remaining pent-up demand”, which, combined with increased air connectivity and a stronger recovery of Asian markets that scrapped Covid travel restrictions later, should finally lead to a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels.
The data shows contrasting recovery trends. Several destinations, including both large, established destinations, as well as small and emerging ones, reported double-digit growth in international arrivals in 2023 when compared to 2019, while others continued to heavily lag behind. While tourism in the European Union already exceeded pre-pandemic levels last year, Europe overall only reached 94%.
The Middle East led recovery in relative terms as the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% above 2019. Africa recovered 96% of pre-pandemic visitors and Americas reached 90%. Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels following the reopening of several markets and destinations. However, performance is mixed, with South Asia already recovering 87% of 2019 levels and North-East Asia around 55%.
When zooming in on regional levels, four sub-regions exceeded their 2019 arrival levels: Southern Mediterranean Europe, Caribbean, Central America and North Africa, showing a continued preference for warm climates and beach-oriented holidays.
The rebound is already having a significant impact on economies, jobs, growth and opportunities for communities everywhere.
Zurab Pololikashvili, UNTWO Secretary- General
The barometer also highlights the economic impact of recovery, with international tourism receipts having reached $1.4 trillion (€1.29 trillion) in 2023 according to preliminary estimates, about 93% of the $1.5 trillion (€1.38 trillion) earned by destinations in 2019. Preliminary estimates on the economic contribution of tourism, measured in tourism direct gross domestic product (TDGDP) point to $3.3 trillion (€3.03 trillion) in 2023, or 3% of global GDP. This indicates a recovery of pre-pandemic TDGDP driven by strong domestic and international tourism.
The sustained recovery is also reflected in the performance of industry indicators. According to the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker, both international air capacity and passenger demand recovered over 99% of pre-pandemic levels through November 2023, according to IATA figures. Global occupancy rates in accommodation establishments reached 65% in November, slightly above 62% in November 2022 (based on STR data).
2. Looking ahead to 2024
International tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth above 2019 levels. This central forecast by UNWTO remains subject to the pace of recovery in Asia and to the evolution of existing economic and geopolitical downside risks.
The positive outlook is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals indicating better or much better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023. Some 28% expect similar performance, while only 6% expect tourism performance in 2024 to be worse than last year.
The optimistic outlook is explained by a remaining “significant room for recovery across Asia”. Moreover, Chinese outbound and inbound tourism is expected to accelerate in 2024, due to visa facilitation and improved air capacity. China is applying visa-free travel for citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Malaysia for a year, until 30 November 2024.
Visa and travel facilitation measures are also expected to boost tourism in the Middle East and Africa, with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to implement a unified tourist visa, similar to the Schengen visa, and measures to facilitate intra-African travel in Kenya and Rwanda. On the other hand, the evolution of the Hamas-Israel conflict may disrupt travel in the Middle East and impact traveller confidence, while uncertainty derived from the Russian aggression against Ukraine, as well as other mounting geopolitical tensions, continue to weigh on confidence.
Meanwhile, Europe is expected to drive results again in 2024. In March, Romania and Bulgaria will partly join the Schengen area, and Paris will host the 2024 Olympics in July and August, which is expected to contribute to France attracting over 100 million tourists this year.
