Tourism in Europe is facing six main challenges over the next ten years, according to a new report from the European Travel Commission (ETC) that both explores how these stress factors could play out across the industry and aims to support stakeholders in anticipating and adapting to these shifts.
A “decisive decade” ahead
The decade to 2035 will be a “decisive” one for the tourism sector, the report says, with impacts likely to stem from six trends, identified as: climate change; fear of technological and social shifts; adjustments in European governance and regulation; a rising (and aging) middle class; younger consumers’ appetite for sustainable travel in different formats; and labour market shortages and “mismatches.”
To help stakeholders such as National Tourism Organisations (NTOs) and Destination Managers plan their responses to these drivers, the ETC provides a “Future Proofing” toolkit which maps out four “plausible” future scenarios and the role that the different pressures might play in them, as well as the threats and opportunities that could arise.
Four future scenarios, from familiar …
The four futures presented start with a “Fragmented and Familiar” scenario, in which “weak EU governance and dominance of global platforms drive mass tourism but erode authenticity.” This situation would leave small to medium enterprises (SMEs) struggling to compete, the ETC suggests, due to being marginalised by cost pressures and over-dependent on big tech platforms, in a trade environment dominated by short-termism, mass market products and iconic sites.
While this situation sounds quite negative, some providers can turn it into an opportunity with what the ETC calls “micro-resilience strategies, value-based experiences, or regional branding initiatives.”
The second case in point is described as “Coordinated and Familiar” with the same risks of mass marketeering and platform dependency as above, but where those challenges are mitigated by stronger EU collaboration that helps to promote more resilience and better risk management.
… to transformative
Thirdly, the ETC envisages a potential state of “Collaborative Transformation,” where governance is more “inclusive.” Here, demographic shifts, plus an offer that is well aligned with “climate and digital agendas,” can “foster regenerative, participatory tourism.” In this landscape, tech is used to provide insights into public values and to support visibility and transparency, as well as help businesses co-create new immersive forms of cultural experience. However, threats include travel becoming “aspirational rather than a lived reality,” governance becoming too complex, and climate change disruption remaining “relentless”, especially in southern Europe and coastal areas.
The final future scenario is one of “Uneven Transformation,” which sees local communities and SMEs driving innovation and catering to travellers who seek “immersive, identity-affirming experiences” and who are overcoming “old booking habits” in favour of “slower, values-driven formats.” However, “systemic disparities” could arise due to a lack of EU-wide cohesion.
A “foresight toolkit”
Commenting on the report and the forward insights it offers, ETC President Miguel Sanz said: “For National Tourism Organisations, it is no longer enough to plan only for the short term; they must be prepared for very different possible futures. This study provides them with the foresight tools to do so. By encouraging EU collaboration, strengthening resilience, and pointing to actions that remain relevant across scenarios, the report helps NTOs make decisions today that will keep European tourism strong and adaptive in the years ahead.”
