Everyone knows the story by now. Free-flowing international travel has become a relic of a pre-Covid era. Lockdowns, border closures, travel restrictions are a dystopian version of life in 2020/1. Lovers of travel and the ecosystem of destinations, businesses and individuals depending on tourism want their pre-pandemic lives back. Yet, that could take longer than expected, experts are now predicting.
As the northern hemisphere approaches winter and infection rates edge up, there are some tough questions looming about how to balance continuing Covid measures with individual freedoms, equality and inclusion issues, and the economic future of tourism-dependent countries.
Richer countries and those managing to negotiate the complex Covid-19 vaccine rollout are opening up to vaccinated international tourists. This is broadly considered good news but with only around a third of the worldâs population fully vaccinated, it runs the risk of widening what the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) calls âimmunisation inequalityâ which threatens the sectorâs recovery, and global economic health with it.
In the 18 months since Covid effectively closed everything down, tourismâs contribution to global GDP halved from US$9.2 trillion in 2019 to US$4.7 trillion in 2020, and a staggering 62 million travel and tourism jobs were lost. Continuing international border closures, uncertainty, prohibitive and disjointed testing and tracking regimes, and uneven vaccination programmes have all hindered travel and tourismâs recovery. These are some of the issues raised in a new report by WTTC and the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Tourism.
Only one in ten people responding to a survey by Oliver Wyman, a consultancy, say they have a firm booking for a future trip. Ever-changing and confusing rules and measures have eroded traveller confidence, suggests WTTC, and this is largely because there is no global consensus on testing requirements, quarantine and vaccination standards.
âFor a decision that involves potentially large sums of money, scarce time and inherent risks associated with the unknown (frustration, delays, cultural/linguistic differences), credibility as well as security become very important,â the present author points out in Tourism and the Media, an early investigation of tourist decision-making, motivation, and other travel communication questions. Industry professionals, the book goes on, think safety issues are more influential in determining a personâs decision not to go or to defer a trip, rather than the reverse; clicking the âbookâ button, something clearly more associated with positive emotions.  Â
Negatives associations can take time to undo; time that many destinations and operators donât have to spare. Livelihoods continue to be affected by a failure to harmonise and standardise Covid-19 regulations worldwide, notes WTTCâs President and CEO Julia Simpson in a statement coinciding with the reportâs release. âThere is no excuse for a patchwork of regulations, countries need to join forces and harmonise the rules.â
Today, only 34% of the global population is fully vaccinated, which points to large vaccine rollout inequalities globally, according to WTTC: âA swift and equitable immunisation plan, alongside worldwide reciprocal recognition of all World Health Organisation-approved vaccines, is needed to safely reopen international travel and promptly resume the economic activity.â
Safe travel stamp
The report, Uniting to restore international mobility and reshape travel and tourism, does offer a glimmer of hope and some timely recommendations to help the sector recover faster by redesigning âa more sustainable, inclusive, and resilient futureâ.
Modest sector growth of 30.7% can be expected in 2021, notes WTTC. And at the current rate of recovery, the industryâs contribution to GDP could see a similar year-on-year rise of 31.7% in 2022. Job-creation in the sector is less promising (0.7% growth for 2021), but is likely to pick up next year by 18%.
For this to happen, it is vital to start uniting all stakeholders behind efforts to restore consumer confidence and stability in the sector. Taking away the hassles in what for most travellers should be a pleasurable experience is a major part of the plan to move forward.
To this end, WTTC worked with public and private actors to put together âharmonised safe travel protocolsâ for 11 industries across the travel and tourism sector. âOur globally recognised Safe Travel stamp has been adopted by more than 400 destinations worldwide.â
International coordination to reopen borders, fairer testing conditions, greater use of digital tools to facilitate movement, and a focus on sustainability and social impact are all needed to restore international mobility and help the travel and tourism sector recover faster, urges World Travel and Tourism Council.
