The population of the European Union is expected to shrink significantly over the coming decades. According to new projections from Eurostat, the total number of people living in the EU could fall by 11.7% between 2025 and 2100, a decrease of around 53 million people by the end of the century.
In the shorter term, however, the picture looks slightly different, as the EU population is estimated at 451.8 million in 2025, following a post-pandemic recovery. It is expected to continue growing modestly until it peaks at around 453.3 million in 2029. After this point, the trend reverses, and the population gradually declines, reaching approximately 398.8 million by 2100, showing a slow but steady long-term demographic shift.
One of the most important changes behind these figures is the ageing of the population. The share of children and young people aged 0 to 19 is expected to decrease from 20% to 17% over the same period. At the same time, the proportion of people considered to be of working age, between 20 and 64 years old, is also set to shrink from 58% to 50%. This means that the group of people who typically support the economy and public systems will become smaller over time.
In contrast, older age groups are growing rapidly. The share of people aged 65 to 79 is projected to rise slightly, from 16% to 17%. A much more striking change can be seen among those aged 80 and over, whose share is expected to increase from 6% to 16%. This means that by 2100, a much larger part of Europe’s population will be made up of elderly people, especially those in very advanced age groups.
These developments are closely linked to how Europe’s population is structured today. The EU already has a relatively older population, with fewer young people coming up behind and more people in their late working years, reflecting long-term trends of low birth rates and rising life expectancy. This balance is expected to shift further in the coming decades, with fewer young people and a growing share of older age groups. As a result, fewer people will enter the workforce while more will be in retirement, gradually reshaping how European societies function.
Several key factors explain why this is happening. One of the main reasons is that birth rates across Europe remain low. On average, families are having fewer children than in the past, which reduces the number of young people over time. At the same time, people are living longer thanks to improvements in healthcare and living conditions.
Migration also plays a key role in shaping Europe’s population trends, but it does not fully offset the overall decline. Movement of people into and out of EU countries can significantly influence national population sizes, especially in smaller countries or those with strong migration flows.
In some cases, immigration helps to support population growth despite low birth rates, while in others, limited inflows or higher outmigration contribute to faster declines. Experts note that migration can help balance ageing populations by adding more people of working age, but its impact varies widely between countries. Overall, while migration can soften demographic decline in certain parts of Europe, it is not enough to reverse the long-term downward trend across the EU as a whole.
Across Europe, population change is expected to follow very different paths depending on the country, which makes national comparisons important. While 12 out of 30 European countries are projected to see population growth by 2100, the majority will experience a decline. The strongest decreases are expected in Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Greece, where populations could fall by more than 30%.
Other countries in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as parts of Southern Europe such as Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Italy, are also expected to see notable declines. In contrast, a smaller group of countries, including Luxembourg, Iceland and Malta, is projected to grow significantly, while others like Ireland, Sweden and Switzerland are also expected to increase, but at more moderate levels.
These differences highlight how uneven demographic change will be across the continent, with some regions shrinking much faster than others. Fewer people of working age and a growing share of older residents are expected to put pressure on European economies and public services, particularly in areas such as healthcare and social support. Overall, these projections show how Europe’s population is likely to evolve over the rest of the century.
