There are some bargain transatlantic airfares to be had for holidaymakers prepared to take advantage of others’ concerns about travel between Europe and the United States, analysts are reporting.
The months-long decline in consumer appetite for travel to the US has been widely written about. It has been attributed to a variety of chilling effects related to do with President Donald Trump’s foreign policy. Tightened controls at US borders led European nations to issue travel advisories warning about potential difficulties for those trying to enter the United States. Trump’s remarks about annexing Canada and his criticism of Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy did not play well abroad, and neither did his imposition of trade tariffs that triggered worldwide financial uncertainty and prompted leisure travellers to review their spending.
Following year-on-year double-digit percentage drops in visitors from some source nations earlier in the year, overseas arrivals to the States in May continued the downward trend, albeit a shallower slide at -2.8%, according to new data from the US Department of Commerce’s National Travel and Tourism Office.
Western Europeans shunned Stateside trips to the tune of -4.4%, with Danes and Germans turning away in the highest numbers. Denmark has fallen out with Trump over his determination to take over Greenland, while Germany did not react well to interference in their elections by US Vice President JD Vance.
As the peak summer travel season approaches at pace, projected arrivals figures for July look bad too. Inbound bookings to the US are showing a 13% year-on-year shortfall, according to OAG Aviation.
Though demand from Europe is down, demand for travel to Europe is up, perhaps driven by airlines such as Lufthansa, which are marketing more to Americans due to the shift in European sentiment. Americans are also keen on Europe thanks to round-trip economy airfares for over 50 routes between the US and Europe that fell by 7% in Q1 2025. Flying between Georgia and London was 55% cheaper in the first part of the year, aviation analysts Cirium said.
That downward pressure on transatlantic airfares is said to be continuing into the summer, with round-trip costs down 10% from a year ago, according to booking firm Hopper. Average fares are now so low that they are in line with prices six years ago, pre-pandemic.
If increasing numbers of US consumers decide to spend their vacation budget coming to Europe instead of holidaying at home, the US travel and tourism industry could face an even worse slump than predicted by internal experts such as the US National Travel Association, which has warned of 140,000 potential job losses, and external commentators such as the World Travel and Trade Council, which has forecast industry losses of up to $12 billion.
