Drought, deforestation and climate disruption could lead the Amazon rainforest to reach a tipping point by 2050, inducing large-scale collapse, new research has shown. The study takes into account the impact of local human activity and the global climate crisis. Because of the projected outcome, scientists are urging authorities to take action now to try and restore some of the damages that have been done, thereby trying to restore natural balance in the area.
The Amazon rainforest has been around for 65 million years but the region is now under threat. Drought, extreme temperatures, wildfires and deforestation are damaging the ecosystem and causing deterioration. Nature has become weaker and more homogenous. However, according to the scientists, that regression would rapidly accelerate from 2050 onwards if the situation isn’t addressed quickly.
By 2050, it will accelerate rapidly. We need to respond now. Once we pass the tipping point, we will lose control of how the system will behave.
Bernardo Flores, Professor at the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil
In order to prevent that tipping point, its multiple causes should be addressed. Firstly, on a local scale, the researchers are urging local authorities to halt any further deforestation. On the contrary, reforestation to the rainforest’s former glory is needed if we want to have a chance to restore local natural balance. Secondly, a global reduction in CO2 emissions is necessary to prevent the Amazon rainforest from rapidly deteriorating.
The importance of preserving the Amazon rainforest as well as possible is clear: if the forest is damaged, less rain gets produced. And if deforestation continues, the forest won’t be able to play its important role as a carbon sink any longer, therefore increasing the pace of global warming even more.
“The recent El Niño shows how everything is happening now faster than we think. We have to expect things happening earlier than we thought. We need to address this with a very precautionary approach. We must reach net zero emissions and net zero deforestation as quickly as possible. It needs to be done now. If we lose the Amazon, it would be problematic for humanity”, said Bernardo Flores, lead author of the study and Professor at the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil.
According to the researchers, if things continue as they are, by 2050, 10% to 47% of the forest will be impacted, which could lead to a rapid increase of consequences. 15% of the Amazon rainforest has already been cleared and another 17% has been damaged by human activity, such as logging, fires and under-canopy extraction. A further 38% of the Amazon may be weakened as a result of the prolonged droughts over the past decade.
The study found that deforestation should be limited to 10%, including a buffer zone, to prevent the so-called tipping point. Moreover, global warming should stay within the 1.5°C margin above pre-industrial levels, for which it is likely already too late.
