With the aviation industry, and travel overall, almost fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, almost 5 billion people are expected to travel by air this year, according to the latest projections from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Although the association already predicted last year that 2024 will be the year the industry finally exceeds 2019 (pre-Covid) levels, it has now increased end-of-year expected figures, following better than anticipated uptake. With the new projections, a record 4.96 billion people are expected to fly this year, almost 10% more than the 4.54 billion from 2019.
This year, airlines will connect nearly 5 billion people over 22,000 routes on 39 million flights. With record air travellers expected, the human need to fly has never been stronger.
Willie Walsh, IATA Director General
With the increased traffic, profitability rates have also been revised up. Total revenues for the industry, including passenger and cargo operations, are expected to reach a record $996 billion. However, with expenses also reaching a record high of $936 billion, the expected net profit of $30.5 billion (3% net profit margin) will not be a record, but is still almost 5 billion more than the $25.7 billion (2.7% net profit margin) forecast from December 2023.
“The expected aggregate net profit of $30.5 billion in 2024 is a great achievement considering the recent deep pandemic losses”, said IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh. “Moreover, the global economy counts on air cargo to deliver the $8.3 trillion of trade that gets to customers by air. Without a doubt, aviation is vital to the ambitions and prosperity of individuals and economies.”
A total of 38.7 million flights is expected to be available in 2024, 1.4 million flights below previous estimates (December 2023). The downsized expectations are largely attributed to the slowing pace of deliveries in the face of persistent supply chain issues in the aerospace sector. For example, the number of aircraft deliveries scheduled for 2024 is expected to be 1,583, which is 11% less than the expectations published at the end of last year that anticipated 1,777 aircraft would join the global fleet in 2024.
While supply chain issues have impacted Airbus deliveries as well, it is Boeing that has been having a disastrous year and had its production limited by regulators following the Alaska Airlines mid-flight blow-out in January. Major airlines have already reduced their schedules for this summer as a result of the delivery delays.
