The CEO of Europe’s biggest airline by passenger numbers has warned that consumers will face “the biggest increase in airfares in history” in 2027, blaming sharp rises in jet fuel prices.
Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said at a news conference in Brussels that many carriers had failed to hedge their fuel price positions to cope with the oil supply issues caused by the US-Israel war on Iran. He also noted a suite of current mergers, takeovers, and bankruptcies in the aviation sector and predicted that the ensuing decline in available seats, combined with rising fuel costs, could see airfares go up by 20%.
“You’re going to see airfares rise next year in Europe,” O ‘Leary said, adding: “I think by 10, 15, maybe 20%. You’re going to see the biggest increase in airfares, I would say, in history in Europe for the next 12 months.”
He went on to explain that while Ryanair and other European airlines had hedged their jet fuel outlay for 2026, and that Ryanair was 80% hedged at $67 per barrel to March 2027, the situation was likely to change from April 2027. Ryanair had managed to hedge 15% of its 2027 fuel costs at $85 a barrel, but remains “unhedged into the summer of 2027.” Since real-time bulk fuel prices are twice that, and most of Ryanair’s European rivals are, according to O’Leary, not as well placed, consumers could see a big hike in travel expenditure.
The media event where O’Leary made the comments took place in the Belgian capital and coincided with the Ryanair announcement that 20 routes and over a million seats would be slashed from the airline’s Belgian winter schedule out of Brussels and Charleroi, due to planned aviation tax rises. O’Leary has slammed the Belgian policy as “stupid” and said it makes the country less competitive than its neighbours.
As well, decrying individual country taxes, airlines such as Ryanair are increasingly opposed to European Union climate policies such as the Emissions Trading System (ETS) that applies to flights within the European Economic Area (EEA), Switzerland and the UK, but does not affect competitors operating elsewhere. Ryanair alone faces an ETS compliance bill of €1.5 billion in 2026.
Reported by POLITICO, O’Leary said European citizens “are paying all these environmental taxes, while the Yanks, the Asians and the Chinese land and take off in Europe completely exempt from their fair share.”
One positive point did come out of the conference, however. Having also been a vocal critic of supply chain problems that have dogged the delivery of new aircraft, O’Leary said he now expects US certification of the Boeing 737 MAX 10 to go through by the end of October 2026, meaning Ryanair is now “optimistic” they could receive 16 of the planes they have on order by the beginning of 2027.
Comparable to the Airbus A321neo, the Boeing 737 MAX 10 is significantly more fuel-efficient per seat than older 737 generations, saving between 14% and 20% in fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions—an important factor going into 2027, given the fuel pressures O’Leary says the year is likely to bring.
