International tourism growth slowed sharply to just 0.4% in the first half of 2026, as conflict in the Middle East, higher oil prices and persistent inflation put pressure on travel demand and costs.
According to the latest World Tourism Barometer from UN Tourism, an estimated 690 million tourists travelled internationally between January and June 2026, around three million more than during the same period last year.
The figures represent a significant slowdown after international tourist arrivals increased by 4% in 2025, when 1.52 billion people travelled internationally, 60 million more than in 2024.
At the beginning of 2026, UN Tourism had expected international arrivals to grow by between 3% and 4% this year. High costs and geopolitical instability were already identified among the main risks to that outlook.
Growth reverses in second quarter
The latest figures show how quickly the international tourism environment changed during the first half of the year.
International arrivals increased by 2% during the first quarter of 2026 before declining by 1% in the second quarter. Arrivals fell by 3% in April, partly due to the timing of Easter, which started in March this year, as well as disruption linked to the Middle East conflict. Another 3% year-on-year decline was recorded globally in June.
Western Europe registered a particularly pronounced 6% fall during the month, partly attributed to heatwaves affecting some destinations. South-East Asia saw arrivals decline by 5%, reflecting weaker demand from Asian source markets, geopolitical tensions, disruption to air travel through the Middle East and higher travel costs.
Some destinations in Oceania were also affected by Typhoon Sinlaku during the second quarter.
“The latest data shows a sector absorbing real pressure and finding a way forward. Tourism has not stopped growing, but that growth is fragile,” said UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais.
She added that the Middle East situation had affected destinations far beyond the region itself, demonstrating the interconnected nature of international tourism and the need for destinations to strengthen their resilience.
Europe and Africa continue to grow
Despite the global slowdown, regional results remained highly uneven. Africa recorded the strongest growth during the first six months of the year, with international arrivals up 4%, followed by Europe at 3% and the Americas at 2%.
Europe’s performance reinforces a trend already highlighted by Travel Tomorrow. In July, European tourist arrivals were reported to be up 5% despite geopolitical tensions, according to European Travel Commission data. Travellers were becoming increasingly selective, with affordability, safety, proximity and value for money playing a greater role in destination choice.
The resilience has also been visible in aviation. European airport passenger traffic grew by 2.6% in the first half of 2026, despite the Middle East conflict, higher fuel prices and disruption linked to the EU’s Entry/Exit System.
Europe had already consolidated its position as the world’s largest tourism region in 2025, welcoming 793 million international visitors. More recent data has also shown demand shifting towards some less traditional destinations. As Travel Tomorrow reported in August, Czechia became Europe’s fastest-growing booked destination, with bookings increasing by 18% year-on-year.
Asia and the Pacific, meanwhile, recorded growth of just 1% between January and June and remained 11% below 2019 international arrival levels. North-East Asia performed comparatively strongly, growing by 3%, while South Asia declined by 5% and South-East Asia by 1%.
Middle East arrivals fall 22%
The largest decline was recorded in the Middle East, where international arrivals fell by 22% during the first half of 2026 as the region bore the direct impact of the conflict.
The deterioration marks a dramatic reversal for a region that had been one of the strongest drivers of the global tourism recovery. In 2025, the Middle East welcomed almost 100 million international visitors, 39% more than in 2019.
The scale of the potential disruption had already become apparent earlier in the year. In May, Travel Tomorrow reported that the Middle East could lose 23 million international visitors and almost $34 billion in tourism spending under an early-resolution scenario, according to Tourism Economics estimates. A prolonged conflict could result in losses of 38 million visitors and $56 billion in spending.
The consequences have extended beyond tourism destinations themselves, particularly into aviation. US airline fuel costs surged to $6.5 billion in April, a 78% increase compared with 2025, as the conflict drove up jet fuel prices.
The International Air Transport Association subsequently cut its forecast for combined airline net profits in 2026 to $23 billion, compared with an earlier projection of $41 billion and the $45 billion recorded in 2025.
Travellers increasingly looking for value
High travel costs are becoming another important factor shaping international demand. UN Tourism expects consumers increasingly to seek value for money, choose destinations closer to home or opt for domestic travel as elevated prices and uncertainty influence travel decisions.
Evidence of that shift is already emerging across Europe. Despite strong overall demand, travellers have increasingly looked towards destinations perceived as more affordable or offering alternatives to traditional Mediterranean summer hotspots.
In August, Travel Tomorrow reported that Czechia, Iceland and Denmark were among Europe’s fastest-growing destinations, while searches were also rising strongly for Switzerland, Sweden, Ireland, Belgium and Norway.
The changing environment reflects wider structural challenges identified earlier this year. In July, the OECD warned that record tourist arrivals were being accompanied by new risks for destinations, including geopolitical instability, climate-related disruption and changing traveller behaviour.
UN Tourism cuts 2026 growth forecast
Against this backdrop, UN Tourism has lowered its expectations for the full year. International tourist arrivals are now forecast to grow by between 1% and 2% in 2026, down from the 3% to 4% growth predicted at the beginning of the year.
The final result will depend significantly on geopolitical developments and their impact on oil prices, inflation, consumer confidence and travel costs.
The revision represents a notable change from the optimism at the beginning of the year. Following 4% growth in international tourism in 2025, 58% of experts surveyed by UN Tourism had expected tourism performance to improve further in 2026.
Six months into the year, international tourism is still growing, but at a considerably slower pace. The rapid expansion that characterised the post-pandemic recovery has given way to a more fragile environment in which geopolitical events, transport costs, climate conditions and affordability are increasingly determining where and how people travel.
