As the conflict in the Middle East enters its third week, growing airspace chaos and regional volatility are leaving travellers planning spring or summer trips wondering whether it would be better to secure their travel plans now or wait for prices to stabilise.
Fuel costs have risen sharply, raising concerns across the travel industry. After labour, jet fuel is the single largest expense for airlines, typically accounting for around 20% or more of operating costs.
In the days following the conflict’s escalation, US jet fuel prices surged by over 60%, dramatically increasing the cost of operating aircraft. This reflects not only higher crude prices, but also the increasingly complex refining process and hazardous transportation required to deliver jet fuel from oil fields to airport tanks.
According to industry pricing data, the cost of filling the tanks of a Boeing 737–800 rose from around $17,000 in late February to over $27,000 in less than a week, before easing slightly to approximately $23,000.
With Iran warning that it could push oil prices to $200 a barrel, and with prices hovering around $106 on Monday – the first time they have exceeded the $100 mark in four years – the pressure is mounting.
For travellers, the impact is already visible beyond the airports. Higher oil prices are also filtering into petrol prices and transport costs across the broader travel sector.
Is there reason to panic yet? According to Rob Britton, a Georgetown professor and retired American Airlines executive, the current spike is largely anticipatory. Although oil prices have surged, physical availability has only been slightly disrupted so far, and many countries have strategic reserves covering around 90 days of net imports, which provide a temporary cushion.
However, Britton warns that travellers should expect ticket prices to rise almost proportionately if these high prices persist.
Airlines are beginning to act
Several airlines, including Qantas, Scandinavian Airlines, Air New Zealand and Thai Airways, have warned that they will increase fares to offset what they describe as an “unusually rapid and substantial increase” in fuel costs. Cathay Pacific has announced that it will double its fuel surcharges on 18 March, while Air New Zealand has cut its services by 5% in an attempt to manage the strain.
Airlines are also facing operational pressures. The closure of parts of Middle Eastern airspace has forced aircraft to take longer routes between Europe, Asia and Australia, thereby increasing fuel consumption and reducing seat availability. According to the aviation analytics company Cirium, at least 50,000 flights have been cancelled since 28 February, reducing capacity on several long-haul routes.
Daily Gulf airline operations for 15 March. Emirates flights climbed again on Sunday and Etihad operated more than 100 flights for the first time since the war began. pic.twitter.com/4RQDelE1Uj
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) March 16, 2026
Demand, it would seem, remains the key variable. As aviation analyst Zach Griff notes, airlines can only raise fares for as long as travellers continue to book. However, if economic conditions weaken and leisure or business travel slows, carriers may have little room to increase prices, regardless of their fuel costs. ‘Marginal flights are on the chopping block,’ warns Griff, predicting a particularly tough season for struggling low-cost carriers such as Spirit.
In the US, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby expects higher fares to affect customers ‘quickly’. However, Griff cautions that if inflation or a weaker economy causes travellers to pull back, airlines will lose their ability to keep raising fares, regardless of fuel costs.
So what should travellers do?
According to Mike Arnot, an industry analyst, fuel surcharges can quickly add 5–10% to the cost of a ticket, and these surcharges are applied to new bookings rather than existing reservations. Those who purchased their tickets before the latest increase will not be affected retroactively.
Travel expert Scott Keyes suggests a ‘fail-safe’ strategy: book early, but avoid highly restrictive basic economy tickets. “If you book a $500 summer flight today and the price drops to $350 in two weeks, you can often rebook and get the $150 difference back as a credit,” he explains. “Heads you win; tails the airlines lose.”
Industry experts broadly agree that booking sooner rather than later is the safer strategy, particularly for summer travel. If prices rise further, early bookers will have secured lower fares. If prices fall, travellers who avoided restrictive tickets may still be able to rebook and claim the difference as airline credit.
While US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has predicted a “recovery in energy markets”, oil prices remain volatile, and the duration of the conflict is uncertain. For now, the message from the travel industry is clear: if you can, book early and give yourself enough flexibility to benefit if fares come back down.
