Airline share prices have taken a beating amid soaring oil prices and airfares, as the world reels from the recent US and Israeli attacks on Iran, and subsequent Iranian retaliations in the Middle East. The situation has experts concerned about a severe downturn in the travel industry.
Oil producers and exporters have slashed supplies due to the risk of shipping disruptions. Subsequently, oil prices rose 15% on Monday, 9 March, and Brent crude—the most refined and traded of oils—spiked 29%. In countries like the UK, drivers have crowded petrol stations due to fears of shortages, while analysts around the world point to the “existential threat” to aviation, especially at a time when flight routes are necessarily longer, consuming more fuel due to the Middle East’s closed airspace. Many carriers no longer practice hedging, even though fuel is their highest cost after labour, making them extremely vulnerable.
🚨 NEW: The AA and RAC are advising drivers to conserve fuel and cut back on non-essential journeys amid fears soaring oil prices will increase petrol costs
— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) March 9, 2026
“If crude is rising 20%, jet fuel is rising several times more as it is even more scarce, adding significant cost to operations together with crew resources, which are stretched due to longer flying times when airspace is closed,” said Subhas Menon, head of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, Reuters reported.
It’s a perfect storm: high fuel prices; longer routes; high unemployment in many countries; low business travel confidence; and airfares so extortionate that leisure consumers cannot afford to fly (tickets for one Korean flight from Seoul to London on 11 March leapt a whopping 672.87%). The combination could ring the death knell for some carriers, Morningstar indicated. Delta and Northwest Airlines were forced to restructure debts and merge after the 2005 post-hurricane jet fuel crisis in 2005.
🛢️📈 Oil prices spiked ~26–30% overnight, one of the biggest single-day moves in decades.
— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026
WTI ~$118, Brent ~$116, with extreme volatility (3–5% swings).
— Some analysts warn of $150+ oil if conflict continues.
— Trigger: Iran–US–Israel conflict disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. pic.twitter.com/OdEwmfKkSI
Virgin Atlantic decided to cut its losses by ending its seasonal routes to the Middle East early, after one flight to Dubai spent 16 hours in the air and had to refuel and return to its point of departure as the airport came under fire, reportedly from Iranian drone strikes. If no relief or help is forthcoming, other “airlines around the world could be forced to ground thousands of aircraft while some of the industry’s financially weakest carriers could halt operations,” Deutsche analysts warn.
In the wake of these alerts, airline share values have plummeted. American and Cathay Pacific fell 5%; Delta slipped 4.5%; United Airlines fell 6%; Korean Air Lines dropped 8.6%; Air New Zealand was close behind at -7.8%. As for European carriers, the outlook was not much better. Air France KLM, IAG, Lufthansa, and Wizz Air all lost between 2.5% and 6%.
🗣️ 'As it is difficult to predict how the situation will unfold, the government must prepare preemptive response measures with a sense of urgency, keeping even the worst-case scenario in mind'
— Anadolu English (@anadoluagency) March 9, 2026
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung to introduce fuel price cap as Middle East crisis… pic.twitter.com/QfGW0497Z5
It is not only airlines in the headwinds. Cruise line operators have also suffered sharp share price declines. Carnival was down 7% on Monday; Royal Caribbean sank 6.6%, and Norwegian lost 6%. And with the duration of the Middle East conflict uncertain, the forecast for stakeholders in road, sea, and air transport could be equally uncertain for some time to come.
