The number of people suffering heat-related deaths in Europe could increase three-fold in the next 75 years, European Commission researchers have found, with poorer populations and inhabitants in the south of the bloc most at risk.
Summer season deaths could outstrip winter
The research takes into account the effects of climate change at various levels of severity. It looked at today’s heat death figures, which currently stand at 44,000 in Europe, as well as predictions for heat deaths if the planet manages to keep global warming to its target limit of 1.5°C, or goes to 3°C or 4°C above pre-industrial averages.
While there were some limitations to the study, including making assumptions for rural areas based on data from cities which tend to be warmer, the team concluded that, contrary to some beliefs, the predicted changes in both types of death, from hot and from cold conditions, would not simply balance each other out.
Instead, deaths from the cold in what is the world’s coolest inhabited continent, which currently far outnumber heat-related deaths, might slowly decrease, but the rise in heat-related deaths would be potentially catastrophic. Summer season deaths would outstrip those in winter, reaching more than 234,455 deaths annually by 2100 in the worst scenario.
Many more heat-related deaths are expected to occur as the climate warms … while deaths from cold decline only slightly.
David García-León, co-author of the study, from the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission
Southern Europe most at risk
The threat level differed across the region. Perhaps predictably, northern Europe would be “characterised by low heat risk and moderate-to-high cold risk” while the risk of dying due to the heat was far greater in southern regions, with countries such as Greece, Italy and Spain named as “hotspots” that would be worst hit. In eastern European countries the risk of both cold and heat related death was considered high.
Part of the risk stems from demographic factors such as aging populations, because older people with more underlying conditions are more vulnerable to the effects of extreme temperatures. In addition, socio-economic factors such as employment levels, relative wealth, and changes in the ways economies would be able to function under climate change, would also come into play.
Unemployment, poverty and age
The researchers made recommendations about how the EU bloc might avoid the increases in morbidity and mortality and the ensuing burden on health systems. Policy makers should focus, the scientists said, on regions of “high unemployment, poverty, structural economic changes, emigration, and ageing populations, since they have a lower capacity to adapt to the impacts of climate change while simultaneously being hotspots where heat-related death will materialise more intensely in the coming years.”
The research was funded by the European Commission and published in The Lancet Public Health on 21 August 2024.
