Before you dismiss as the rantings of a green, I urge you to read the UK’s National Security Risk Assessment on Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security, published on 19th January. This assessment is an official national security analysis commissioned by the government. It applied the same methodology used to assess all UK security risks – terrorism, war, epidemics – to biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse. While the report does not say that business as usual is unacceptable, its assessment clearly proves that business as usual is foolhardy and businesses and destinations need to do more.
As Prof Nathalie Seddon has reminded UK residents: “We are facing a national emergency not only because the climate is changing, but because the living systems that regulate that climate, protect our homes, and feed our people are breaking down – here, in one of the most nature-depleted nations on Earth”.
“Nature is the living foundation of our food, our water, and a stable climate. When we restore biodiverse ecosystems, we strengthen resilience, support livelihoods, and renew the conditions for a safe and prosperous country. This assessment shows that biodiversity loss is not a distant environmental worry but a real and growing national security risk, one that deserves the same seriousness and attention as any other threat facing the UK,” she underscored.
The wording of the warnings in the UK’s National Security Risk Assessment is stark. Remember, this report is produced in the same way as the risks of terrorism and war.
- “The world is already experiencing impacts, including crop failures, intensified natural disasters, and infectious disease outbreaks. Threats will increase with degradation and intensify with collapse.”
- “Cascading risks of ecosystem degradation are likely to include geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, conflict, migration, and increased inter-state competition for resources.”
- “Ecosystem degradation is occurring across all regions. Every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse (irreversible loss of function beyond repair).”
- “Without significant increases in UK food system and supply chain resilience, it is unlikely the UK would be able to maintain food security if ecosystem collapse drives geopolitical competition for food. The UK relies on imports for a proportion of both food and fertiliser and cannot currently produce enough food to feed its population based on current diets. Countries best placed to adapt are those that invest in ecosystem protection and restoration, and resilient and efficient food systems.”
This official government report concludes that “Ecosystem collapse is highly likely to drive national security risk” and lists the risks that arise.
Writing in The Guardian, George Monbiot explained why it “took an FOI request to bring this national security assessment to light. For ‘doomsayers’ like us, it is the ultimate vindication.”
The BBC reported: “The 14-page report was officially published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). But the BBC understands it was put together by the Joint Intelligence Committee, which oversees the security services, in addition to input across government. The report draws on scientific research and expert judgement to assess a “reasonable worst-case scenario” for the impacts of nature loss on the UK’s security.”
