A Canadian boycott of travel to the United States has erased tens of thousands of flights from aviation schedules from spring 2025 onwards as airlines pivot to tailor their offer to travellers’ changing wishes, prompting concerns about the health of the US travel and tourism sector.
April traditionally sees a surge in Canadian travel to US sunshine destinations, such as Florida and California, but amid ongoing trade war tensions and a poor currency exchange rate, significant numbers of Canadians are voting with their wallets and choosing to vacation elsewhere. So significant is the trend in fact, that independent aviation data as well as government figures show that both Canadian and US carriers are cutting back on US-bound flights and seat capacity.
Mexico and the Caribbean gain in popularity
From budget airline Flair to larger national carriers such as WestJet and giants such as United, aviation is responding to what United CEO Scott Kirby has called a “big drop in Canadian traffic to go into the US.” Without naming the firms, Travel and Tour World (TTW) has reported a 25% slash to US-bound traffic from a “low-cost Canadian carrier” and a 7% reduction in seat capacity at a major.
Airline representatives told CNBC that “Our network decisions are driven solely by consumer demand—we deploy our aircraft where demand is strongest” (Flair) and that Canadians were choosing Mexico and the Caribbean over the US and “we will continue to fly where there is demand,” (WestJet).
In the wake of economically-damaging US tariffs and repeated Trump remarks about annexing its neighbour, Canadian fury and price pragmatism are evident not only in independent advance US flight bookings data, down by around 70% year-on-year, but also in car journey figures that reveal 300,000 fewer border crossings in February 2025 compared to February 2024 – a 13% drop, according to Statistics Canada.
Warmth of US welcome in question
The US travel and tourism sector was already operating at a $52 billion deficit in 2024. With Canadians making up 28% of the 72 million foreign visitors to the US, TTW notes that “reduced Canadian travel could result in billions of dollars in lost revenue for the U.S. travel and hospitality industries if the trend persists.”
Passenger bookings from Canada are down 70% compared to last year. This huge drop doesn't just impact airline revenue. Hotels, car rentals, tourist destinations, etc. will also have big drops in revenue.
— Bob Morris🌵☀️ (@polizeros) March 28, 2025
And they won't be coming back until Trump is gonehttps://t.co/nNyyh76PJI pic.twitter.com/ceCVaL0NGI
What’s more, it is not only Canadians thinking twice about going to the US. Europeans are increasingly hesitant too, according to an Oxford Economics analysis says that European demand for US hotel rooms is 15% down. Countries including Belgium, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK have all updated travel advice to warn citizens about potential problems when entering the US on transgender ID documents, as well as a series of unexplained detentions of European citizens by US border officials.
The TTW has branded the overall situation a “clear inflection point — where sentiment, politics, and market realities converge”, while the U.S. Travel Association said in a statement to CNBC that question marks over “America’s welcomeness, a slowing U.S. economy and recent safety concerns” are real challenges that “demand decisive action.”
