The United States could lose up to a third of international travellers because of proposed new US rules about social media for travellers, according to new research from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).
The law would make it mandatory to supply five years’ social media information from visitors from 43 countries. It affects anyone eligible to travel to the US without a visa under the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA), such as those from most of the European Union countries and the United Kingdom.
Put forward by the Trump administration’s border forces in December, the legislation appears to have made an impact among the public, with two-thirds of travellers surveyed telling WTTC they had heard of the policy.
POLICY ANALYSIS: THE U.S. ESTA PROGRAMME AND TRAVEL DEMAND
— WTTC (@WTTC) February 4, 2026
New WTTC research, in partnership with @OxfordEconomics, examines the potential economic implications of proposed changes to the U.S. ESTA programme.
Our analysis highlights the importance of maintaining a seamless… pic.twitter.com/5Nq3FgKkU2
Importantly, one third said they would be “somewhat or much less likely to visit the US in the next two to three years if the changes are introduced.” Only 12% told WTTC they would be more likely to visit, resulting in what the council called “a clear and significant net decline in travel intent.” The disinclination to travel affected not just leisure travellers, but those undertaking business trips too, who shared the sense that the US would “feel less welcoming and less attractive,” the WTTC reported.
The trade body highlighted the US as having a more “intrusive” border policy than “key competitors” such as Canada, Japan, the UK, and Western Europe. Japan and suggested its findings about travellers’ sentiment could “translate into substantial and measurable economic losses.” It is estimated that the US could lose 4.7 million international arrivals from ESTA countries in the coming year, which would represent a drop of 23.7% compared with “business-as-usual.”
That adds up to losses in visitor spending up to USD $15.7 billion, with wider GDP losses of USD $21.5 billion. As many as 157,000 US jobs could be jeopardised, the WTTC says, as well as lowering US travel sector exports and weakening an inbound market that has already lost 11 million visitors in the last six years.
While the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has argued that the enhanced data collection would help identify potential threats before travellers board flights to the United States, enhancing national security, critics have said the proposals are an attack on freedom of expression and cross the line from legitimate scrutiny to surveillance.
The more than 4,500 respondents to WTTC represented international travellers across Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. The majority believed the policy “would harm US economic prosperity rather than strengthen it,” and either have no positive impact on their personal safety or even make them feel less safe.
