One of the busiest festive travel seasons ever in the US is beginning earlier than usual and will last longer than predictions, according to some of the biggest airlines in the country and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
The predictions
Early December saw the American Automobile Association (AAA) predicting at least 7.5 million flyers over the holiday period, which it classed as starting on Saturday 23 December, and said would be among the busiest the nation has ever seen.
Aviation lobby group Airlines for America went slightly higher with its estimate of 2.8 million holiday flyers anticipated each day, representing a 16% increase on 2022’s season.
Weighing in, the Federal Aviation Administration says holiday air traffic will be at its height on Thursday, 21 December, two days before the AAA.
19-day surge
All these predictions appear to now be outstripped. Expected passenger numbers for the festive travel period announced by three airlines reveal huge volumes from as early as 20 December and continuing until 30 December – at least.
“The 2023 holiday period is longer than previous years, reflecting the changing travel habits of our customers and school schedules in many of American’s hub markets”, said American Airlines.
The carrier, which is the US’s largest, predicted Friday 22 December would be the busiest in a 19-day-long surge in passenger numbers. In fact, American alone expects to carry 12.7 million passengers – more than the industry total of all holiday flyers predicted by either Airlines for America or the AAA.
Similarly reflecting a prolonged period of heavy traffic in the offing, Delta Air Lines spokesperson Morgan Durant, speaking to CNN, said there is a “seven-way tie” for its busiest days. United meanwhile is preparing for 9 million passengers, 12% more than last year.
Litmus test
The numbers may differ due to the different length of periods looked at but overall the season will be a litmus test to see how the sector has recovered and how it copes with the huge volumes over such a prolonged spell.
Dogged by recruitment issues, unfilled posts, delays, near misses, and air traffic control shortages (as well as poor weather), US aviation has spent the year “hiring aggressively”, according to Airlines for America. Flight schedules were also adapted over Thanksgiving to match supply of air traffic control.
These strategies were successful over Thanksgiving when cancelations and delays were not as prevalent as expected. Will the Christmas season be another sign that the crisis in the sector is abating?
