US President Donald Trump’s tighter borders and trade tariffs continue to cause concern in the country’s travel and tourism sector. New evidence reveals that a months-long Canadian boycott of US destinations, a drop in consumer confidence, and worldwide distrust of the States are contributing to a sharp fall in tourist arrivals to the Land of the Free.
Low Canadian demand for flights
Return flights between Canada and the US plummeted in March 2025 by 13.5% year-on-year, to just 719,500; that’s roughly the same underachievement as February, according to Statistics Canada, making it three months on the trot that Canada-US air travel has declined – a fact picked up on by the Wall Street Journal.
✈️🇺🇸 Passengers arriving to US on international flights for foreign arrivals down -13%, while US Citizens +5%. pic.twitter.com/rY1Dni0DKg
— The Ukrainian Review (@UkrReview) April 7, 2025
It’s a situation that seems self-fulfilling, as airlines are adjusting schedules to account for the collapsing demand, as previously reported by Travel Tomorrow. Seat capacity to the US is being scaled back with smaller aircraft being used on less frequent flights.
US loses out to other destinations
Other destinations seem to have the winning hand in this deal. Instead of taking customers to the States, Air Canada is adding non-stop Montreal to Edinburgh flights for example. And that’s on top of extra flights laid on between Canada and Athens, Paris, and Rome.
While consumer surveys indicate Canadians are worried about their jobs amid a sea of red flags for recession, it is not only Canadian data that indicates America’s chips are down. Delta Air Lines has downgraded its financial forecasts blaming tariffs and uncertainty, and the States’ own Customs and Border Protection figures show that international arrivals at big US airports have dropped by between 10 and 15% year-on-year. Domestic air travel in the US remains stable, suggesting it really could be an international relations issue rather than pure economics keeping people away.
Daily data of the number of arrivals at the top 10 airports in the US has shown a rapid decline since late February. This is likely a mix of declines in business travel, tourism, and government travel. -Apollo pic.twitter.com/ZgDU0rgTPK
— Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) April 14, 2025
Roadtrips to US down by over 30%
Back to Canada though and cross-border Canada-US road trips have also been driven down for the third month running. Car journeys from Canada to the US are down 31.9% year-on-year, according to Statistics Canada numbers released on 10 April that show Canadian resolve is hardening even more, after a 23% drop the previous month.
If their fury continues to make itself felt, it could burn a huge hole in US travel and tourism receipts. Canadians splashed $30 billion in the US in 2023, double the US spending with its northern neighbour and even a 10% reduction in that could see 14,000 American jobs on the line.
What’s more, those fears were expressed by the US Travel Association even before a series of border incidents that have resulted in Chinese and European officials warning their citizens to exercise caution when visiting the States. That could mean that a 10% drop might be the best outcome the US can hope for.
