According to estimations by aerospace company Boeing, China’s commercial aircraft fleet should more than double by 2043. Over 8,000 new planes should be introduced in the country over the next 20 years.
Boeing has made the forecast in its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for China. According to their projections, China’s commercial fleet should grow by 4.1% on an annual basis, going from 4,345 to 9,740 airplanes by 2043. Meanwhile, its annual passenger traffic growth is expected to sit at around 5.9%, compared to 4.7% globally.
“China’s commercial aviation market for passengers and cargo continues to expand, driven by economic growth and airlines building their in-country networks,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of Commercial Marketing. “As this forecast shows, China’s airlines will see strong demand, requiring further growth of their modern fuel-efficient fleets.”
Moreover, according to Boeing’s CMO, air travel within China is forecast to become the world’s largest traffic flow. While the single-aisle fleet remains the most popular, the country should have the world’s largest widebody fleet by 2043 and its freighter fleet will nearly triple in size. For the 2024-2043 period, in terms of new deliveries, Boeing expects 365 regionals, 6,720 single-aisles, 1,575 widebodies and 170 freighters to be needed in China. In order to support the growth, the Chinese aviation services will need 780 billion dollars in investments and 430,000 new personnel.
After a stark decline in air travel due to the Covid-19 pandemic, air travel in China is expected to reach record levels this year. During the Asia Pacific Summit for Aviation Safety in Beijing on 13 August, Zhiyong Song, head of the Civil Aviation Administration (CAA), estimated China would count 700 million air trips during 2024.
In the first half of the year, just domestic flights already accounted for 350 million passengers, a 24% increase compared to last year and 9% over pre-pandemic year 2019, according to the CAA. Although no precise number has been provided for international passengers, the CAA has confirmed the figure has rebounded to 79% of pre-Covid levels.
Travel demand is the strongest between China and Europe, Japan, South Korea and Singapore, prompting new flight routes to be added to cities around the world. The Paris 2024 Olympics in particular have boosted Chinese international travel back up to 70% of pre-Covid levels.
