Thailand’s goal of returning to pre-COVID-19 tourist numbers in 2025 appears to be slipping away, according to government data showing a four-month decline in visitors. The fall comes despite previously high hopes for a surge in so-called “set-jetting” visits driven by the popularity of the TV show The White Lotus and a “golden year” partnership with Trip.com, and is being blamed on fears about earthquakes, scams and people-trafficking, amid government efforts to address public alarm.
A 2025 target of 39-40 million foreign arrivals was set following arrivals of 35 million in 2024. To help achieve this, authorities in the South East Asian kingdom have simplified visa rules for foreign pensioners, students and digital nomads, though they recently reversed a move to allow tourists from 93 countries to stay for 60 days with an Electronic Travel Authorisation, dropping it to 30 days only, after finding the rules had been abused by business travellers.
Trust undermined?
The to-and-fro on entry rules may have contributed to an increasing sense of complexity and even chaos for would-be travellers to Thailand. Digital registration for foreign arrivals was introduced from 1 May 2025 by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, to replace previous paper-based “landing cards” that were suspended last year after the Thai Examiner reported unscrutinised piles of paperwork building up in warehouses.
What’s more, the government was recently forced to announce new protocols to improve safety and crackdown on unofficial tour operators in the wake of social media claims about travel security issues. Under the measures, military, police, and civil authorities are working together “to reassure all travellers that Thailand remains a safe destination,” said Natreeya Taweewong, Tourism and Sports Permanent Secretary.
📢 Important Update for Travelers to Thailand! 🇹🇭
— TAT Newsroom (@Tatnews_Org) March 31, 2025
Starting 1 May 2025, all non-Thai nationals entering Thailand by air, land, or sea must complete the Thailand Digital Arrival Card (TDAC) online before arrival. ✈️🚢🚗
This new digital system makes immigration processing faster,… pic.twitter.com/YV4KCofOse
Reputational and geological earthquakes
Part of the reputational issue stems from reports about Chinese actor Wang Xing who went missing for three days after being abducted and forced to work in a scam centre in the city of Mae Sot on the Myanmar border. China is the biggest source market for Thai tourism, but Chinese arrivals have fallen 33% since the incident.
Wang Xing’s high profile story and its impact demonstrates that screen notoriety can go both ways when it comes to influencing tourists. Thailand had been banking on a tourism boom generated by the US-produced black comedy series The White Lotus, after season one and two locations in Hawaii and Sicily each benefitted from a 300% year-on-year rise in tourist numbers.
🇲🇲😳 Powerful earthquakes around 7.7 and 6.4 on Richter scale have been recorded in Myanmar. Hundreds of houses have been destroyed at the epicenter of the earthquake.
— MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) March 28, 2025
🇹🇭 Earthquake also affected Thailand: in Bangkok high-rise buildings are being evacuated, metro has stopped. pic.twitter.com/HPaie0Mu3o
Now, following a deadly March earthquake in the region and ongoing seismic activity, on top of the rumbling Chinese rumours of crime in Thai destinations, the kingdom’s overall tourism figures for May 2025 are down for the fourth consecutive month, by 14%.
With official figures that show US tourist interest in White Lotus location Koh Samui has climbed by 65%, and high-end hotel reservations on the island are up 40%, as well as an 18% year-on-year increase in European arrival numbers, the country may find it is more reliant on the HBO series than it ever dreamed it would be. But whether those shoots of optimism will be sufficient to counter the downturn in Asian arrivals remains to be seen.
